The 2017 forecast is underpinned by improved confidence and accommodative policies, the report said.
Throughout the East Asia and Pacific region, growth slowed to an estimated 6.3 per cent in 2016. Excluding China, the region grew at a 4.8 per cent pace. Strong domestic spending, supported by generally benign financing conditions for most of 2016, largely counterbalanced weak export growth. Narrowing domestic and external imbalances and stronger policy buffers, coupled with solid growth, helped improve resilience to external headwinds.
The region's growth this year is projected to ease to 6.2 per cent as slowing growth in China is moderated by a pickup in the rest of the region. Excluding China, growth in the region is expected at 5 per cent.
The report warned that risks have tilted further to the downside since mid-2016 and include heightened policy uncertainty in advanced economies (Europe and the United States) amid a rise in support for trade protection. Financial market disruption and weak growth in advanced economies would pose further risks to growth. Rising political opposition to trade has contributed to a post-crisis high in new trade restrictions in the past year. The imposition of trade barriers by major trading partners would disproportionately affect the relatively more open economies of East Asia and Pacific.
An unexpected deceleration of major economies in the region or weaker-than-expected global trade would dampen growth in the region, and a faster-than-expected slowdown in China would have sizable regional spillovers.
Similarly, an adverse reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated rise in interest rates or an increase in global risk aversion could also slow growth. The large, financially integrated economies of the region with sizable external, foreign-currency denominated, and/or short-term debt - such as Indonesia, Malaysia and, to a lesser degree, Thailand - would be most exposed.