How ‘politician Prayut’ can keep his hands on the reins of power

The country’s political outlook has become clearer after the New Year celebrations as Prayut, who led the 2014 military coup, said he is now a “politician”, signalling his interest in returning to power after the next polls.
Under the current charter, drafted by veteran lawmaker Meechai Ruchupan and other experts, Prayut would have to be nominated and endorsed by Parliament to be prime minister again.
To do so, he would have to contest the general election as an MP candidate and leader of a political party. Afterwards, if he were elected and had support from the majority of MPs in Parliament, he could be the next elected premier. This is the best and most prestigious way to return to power in a democratic path.
However, that scenario is now not possible because the charter states that members of National Legislative Assembly, Cabinet or National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), of which Prayut is the leader, have to resign from their posts within 90 days after the new charter becomes effective.
Since the charter has been effective for over nine months, it is too late for Prayut to apply and stand in the next polls as an MP candidate.
Another scenario is to be the next premier as leader of a political party under Article 88 of the charter, which states each political party is required to name a maximum of three persons as their candidates for prime minister prior to the election.
Under this scenario, Prayut could be nominated by a single party contesting in the next polls. One of the pluses of this scenario is that he would be praised for transparency and that could be a rallying point for the party to win votes.
However, as soon as Prayut revealed his political party affiliation, he would be attacked by other parties and that would diminish his probability of winning at the polls.
In this scenario, he would also have the support of about 250 senators handpicked by the NCPO who have the right to vote for the next premier in Parliament under a provisional clause of the charter.
As a result, Prayut needs the support of only 126 MPs to win the premiership in Parliament, as he could count on the support of the 250 senators to get the required majority. The biggest weakness in this scenario is that Prayut would be heading a minority government which may be short-lived due to the lack of majority support in the House of Representatives.
In this scenario, Prayut would also face criticisms of partiality since he would remain the caretaker premier and leader of NCPO while organising the national polls.
In addition, the party chosen by Prayut may not win the most votes, so it would be difficult for him to get a nomination and endorsement in Parliament.
Another possible scenario is to return to power as a PM candidate outside of the political parties’ list. The charter states that political parties may resort to naming an outsider to be prime minister if they could not win enough support for candidates on their list announced before the election takes place.
Under this scenario, Prayut could be seen as “impartial” in the upcoming polls, since he would not be affiliated to any party but he would be nominated by the parties that have the majority of votes.
However, Prayut would need more support in Parliament than any in other scenario, since at least 500 members of both lower and upper houses have to vote for him. In other words, he needs at least 250 MPs and 250 senators to return to power.
This means at least one of the major parties must support Prayut as their choice of prime minister. The Democrat party has been touted as a potential major party to back him. However, it remains unclear whether such a plan would work or Prayut would have to resort to winning enough parliamentary support to form a national coalition government with no opposition party.