The end of Brexit is finally in sight. What actually happened?

Britain's efforts to depart have involved endless negotiations over arcane details. Two British leaders resigned amid the fallout, contesting bitter intraparty rivalries. And the country's economy is set to decline nearly 10 percent in 2020 in the face of intertwining sources of uncertainty: Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic.

After all this time, Brexit is finally happening. At the end of the year, the negotiations set in motion by the 2016 vote are due to finish. At the end of a winding journey, it's time to look back and ask:

What on Earth just happened? And did anyone get what they wanted?

 

- So, what is Brexit exactly?

 

Brexit, a portmanteau of "Britain" and "exit," became a popular term to describe the movement to pull Britain out of the E.U. in 2012, with origins in a long-standing drive to cut Britain's ties to Europe.

Britain joined European Economic Community, the precursor to the E.U., in 1973. But as the body expanded its scope and powers, it became increasingly controversial in Britain. Some argued that E.U. legislation and rules were holding the country back.

The issue of Britain's membership in the European Union had been divisive within the center-right Conservative Party for decades. These divisions led to the downfall of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1990 after pro-Europe members of Parliament ousted her.

 

- Why did Britain hold a referendum?

 

In 2015, Prime Minister David Cameron pushing for a second term. But he was concerned that divisions over the E.U. could send his ruling Conservative Party back to its role as the opposition, where it was stuck from 1997 to 2010.

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) was siphoning off support for the Conservatives by running on an explicitly pro-Brexit platform. Polls showed growing support for UKIP and some Conservative figures had defected to the upstart party.

Cameron favored remaining in the E.U., but wanted to give Brexit-backers a reason to support him. So he promised to hold a referendum on the issue if he won the election. At the time, most polling suggested that "remain" would win such a vote. Cameron won reelection comfortably.

But after the date of the referendum was set - June 23, 2016 - the polling began to narrow substantially as popular Conservative figures like Boris Johnson backed Brexit amid a global wave of populism. The "Remainers" eventually lost the vote by a 52-to-48 split. Cameron resigned the morning after the results were announced.

 

- Why did it take so long to leave the E. U.?

 

There was no preexisting playbook for a country looking to drop out of the E.U.; it had never been done. Before they could even start planning their future relationship, Britain had to negotiate a withdrawal agreement spelling out the terms of its departure - in negotiation with a 26 nation bloc in which every government has a veto.

Just as tricky were the politics at home. Britain voted in favor of Brexit, but it was never clear what exactly that meant. Some argued that Britain could pursue a "soft Brexit" and seek a close relationship like Norway, an outsider that is essentially bound by many E.U. rules. Others railed against that course as outside the spirit of Brexit and urged a clean break - a "hard Brexit."

To make matters worse, Britain's Supreme Court decided in Jan. 2017 that Parliament must have a say on any Brexit deal. Cameron's successor, Theresa May, tried to reach a compromise in-out deal, but it was voted down in Parliament three times before she eventually resigned.

 

- What aspects of Brexit have led to the biggest disagreements?

 

More than three years after Britain voted for Brexit, in July 2019, Johnson, an idiosyncratic though popular politician who had personally backed Brexit, succeeded May.

He quickly pushed for a new election, in which he won a comfortable majority in Parliament. The new prime minister was able to get his withdrawal agreement through Parliament in January 2020, which resulted in the long-awaited "Brexit Day" on Jan. 31 - when Britain formally Brexited.

In many ways, however, the sense of ending was a mirage: Britain may have negotiated its E.U. departure, but it had yet to reach the more important agreement on its future relationship with the bloc. The country entered into an 11-month transition period in which it could negotiate a future trade deal with Europe.

Many of the problems about future relationship have lingered, unresolved. Even this month, there have been significant arguments over fishing rights and other topics.

The largest debate lingers over the Irish border, across which seamless travel from Northern Ireland to Ireland and vice versa is permitted. If trading rules between Northern Ireland do not align with those of Ireland, an E.U. member state, it could result in the need for a hard border - a potential breach of the Good Friday Agreement that some fear could lead to sectarian violence.

 

- What is a no-deal Brexit?

 

Johnson's government has taken a hard line negotiating style, at one point even suggesting that it would might withdraw from elements of the withdrawal agreement - in potential violation of international law - in a dispute over the Irish border.

The British prime minister has also toyed with the idea of a "no deal" Brexit, under which Britain would leave the E.U. at the end of this year when the transition period ends. Under this scenario, Britain would revert to World Trade Organizations for goods from Europe at its border - a chaotic scenario that could disrupt international trade.

Economists suggest such a scenario would be an economic disaster for Britain, but it would hurt E.U. nations too. In October, Johnson said the country needed to prepare to leave the E.U. without a trade deal with "high hearts and with complete confidence."

 

- What long-term effects might Brexit have?

 

It is hard to say. Britain has struggled economically since the 2016 vote, but the effects of Brexit have been overshadowed by the pandemic. Likewise, Johnson's ambitious plans for a "Global Britain," free of E.U. involvement, have sputtered amid a disaster that has killed more than 60,000 people.

Some pro-Brexit voices have argued that short-term economic pain was always likely and that the benefits will come in time. Some British officials have pointed to the country's speedy approval of the Pfizer vaccine as proof of how the country was held back by European bureaucracy, although critics quickly pointed out that the approval was granted under E.U. rules.

In the years since the Brexit vote, polling agencies have asked the public regularly how it would vote in a second referendum. Most recent polls have revealed a nation divided, with most polls suggesting a small but consistent majority preferring to stay in the E.U. Even as Brexit ends, the debate about it will continue.