Vote swing was among highest in local history

Workers’ Party (WP) candidate Lee Li Lian scored a significant victory in Punggol East last night. Concerns that a four-cornered fight would split the opposition vote turned out to be misplaced, as the total votes garnered by the other two parties were just 1.8 per cent.

Voters clearly saw this as a straight contest between the WP and the People’s Action Party from the beginning.

The feisty Lee’s victory with 54.5 per cent of the votes means that she gained a swing of 13.5 percentage points from the ground in just 20 months, the equivalent of 3,261 votes. It is a feat that has been bettered only three times in history.

It ranks behind the Anson by-election in 1981, when WP founder JB Jeyaretnam won with a 37 percentage point swing; Potong Pasir in 1984 when then-Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) chief Chiam See Tong won with a 19 percentage swing; and in Bukit Gombak in 1997 when the PAP’s Ang Mong Seng won the ward back from the SDP with a 16.5 per cent swing.

When an opposition MP has won a constituency, the average swing has been 15 per cent, so Ms Lee’s win is close to the average. The victory will also be remembered for Ms Lee managing this in just two tries and being able to swing so dramatically in a span of under 20 months.

Analysis has shown that a repeat candidate has tended to gain an average of 2.9 percentage points in his second attempt. Ms Lee eviscerated this easily with her double-digit gain.

What swung the votes to the WP in such dramatic fashion? There are several possibilities. First is the “by-election effect”, which the WP played to its advantage. In a by-election, voters feel they can vote freely for the opposition since the PAP Government is safely in power.

While opposition supporters may prefer to attribute the Punggol East win to other factors, the PAP has rarely done well in by-elections. Since 1981, it has had three defeats in four by-elections.

The second reason could be outstanding local and national issues that worked against the PAP. These include the stalled renovation of Rivervale Plaza shopping centre, as well as the lack of hawker centres and public transport options. Other “evergreen” national issues such as transport and housing were also raised during the WP’s rallies.

The fall of Punggol East is therefore perhaps no surprise. Another factor is the ward’s demographic profile, with a large share of young and middle-income residents. This means that “sandwiched class” issues of rising costs of health care and childcare will have resonated strongly with voters, as well as issues of transparency and fairness.