The nationwide deal which is to be signed in Nay Pyi Taw in October risks becoming a non-starter if some ethnic armed groups do not participate, according to Colonel Saw Lwin, the joint-secretary of the Kayan New Land Party.
“The root cause of clashes between the ethnics and the government is the political problem. It won’t come to an end only with the ceasefire. What the ethnics long for is political dialogue. It will be meaningless if all ethnic armed groups do not join the ceasefire deal. If this happens, we won’t sign the deal,” said Colonel Saw Lwin. “If, for instance, the Kachin Independence Army [KIA] does not join it [the ceasefire] we won’t either. Armed revolution is due to the political problem. If the political problem is set aside, we won’t come to the signing,” added the colonel.
Skirmishes between the Myanmar army and ethnic armed groups have continued in various contested areas despite government efforts to push for a nationwide ceasefire deal. The latest incident involved fighting in Mangyin Village of Shan State on September 17 as trust-building talks for peace were still underway in the state capital of Taunggyi. “There have been over 100 skirmishes between the government and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army despite a ceasefire agreement in January 2012. The fighting continued up to the end of September and therefore the October ceasefire deal is unlikely to be held,” said Khun Tun Oo, the chairman of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy.
Khun Tun Oo added that matters regarding the Wa and Mongla armed groups had yet to be settled.
Lieutenant General Hsay Htin, who was involved in the ceasefire processes under General Ne Win in 1963, as well as assisting General Khin Nyunt’s peace efforts in late 1990, said that trust in a ceasefire was necessary for it to succeed.
“If an ethnic armed group keeps on fighting, the ceasefire will not come true. If all ethnic armed groups agree to a ceasefire, it would be the best for the country,” said Hsay Htin.
Government peace-brokers have so far failed to get the KIA to agree to signing the nationwide ceasefire.