Nationwide ceasefire deal still up in the air

Last week’s second conference by ethnic armed organisations, which was supposed to last only three days, ended up being twice as long because of a disagreement over strategy surrounding the nationwide ceasefire deal.

On the fifth day of the January 20-25 conference held in Law Khee Lar, situated in a KNLA-controlled area, ethnic group leaders signed a draft ceasefire. However, the Rehabilitation Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) failed to sign it. Other signatures missing from the document were those of the United Wa State Party/United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) and the Mongla, whose representatives did not attend the conference.

The RCSS said earlier that it would follow the government’s stance towards the nationwide ceasefire deal. The UWSP and Monglar groups are not involved with the ceasefire discussions and are regarded as followers of China. These three ethnic organisations also failed to sign an 11-point common agreement in Laiza.

Sixteen armed groups, including the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), signed the draft nationwide ceasefire deal at Law Khee Lar. However, the signed draft represents merely what the ethnic groups have agreed to: only when the government has agreed to the same terms will there be a signed ceasefire agreement.

The Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWP) proposed a nationwide ceasefire deal that was to be signed last year, with a ceremony to be held in Nay Pyi Taw in July. However, the event has been postponed at least five times.

The government wanted the ceasefire to come first and political dialogue next, while the ethnic groups insisted on the opposite. The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIA), in particular, was entrenched in this position. Last year, the KIO and northern allied groups wanted political dialogue to start as soon as possible. At the same time, southern groups led by the KNU and RCSS/SSA favoured the government’s stance towards the ceasefire. In these circumstances, disagreements arose among the ethnic groups.

The first ethnic conference was held in Laiza, headquarters of the KIO in northern Kachin State. Although the October 30-November 2 meeting highlighted disagreements among the ethnic groups, those in attendance signed an 11-point common agreement. Meanwhile, a Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team was formed with the intent of negotiating with the government on the ceasefire. 

Sticking to the 11-point common agreement, the NCCT held discussions with the UPWC in Myitkyina on November 4 and 5. At that juncture, the UPWC proposed the government-drafted ceasefire draft, and that led to disagreements between the NCCT and the government. There was no positive result from the Myitkyina meeting.

United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) general secretary Naing Han Tha leads the NCCT, which represents ethnic armed groups. The secondary leaders are Maj-General Gwan Maw, deputy chief of staff of the KIA, and Pado Kwal Htoo Win, general secretary of the KNU. Minister for the President’s Office Aung Min leads the UPWC. The Myanmar Peace Centre (MPC) is subordinate to the UPWC and is comprised of the government’s main negotiators.

The NCCT and the UPWC met four times to discuss matters relating to the draft ceasefire. On December 2, the government withdrew its proposed draft after the Myitkyina meeting and decided to continue negotiations based on the 11-point common agreement of the NCCT.

On December 15, the NCCT and UPWC held discussions on the draft ceasefire based on the 11-point common agreement. The UPWC made amendments and discussions. On December 29, they met again in Thailand and made some amendments to the draft ceasefire. 

The Law Khee Lar conference did not release the draft ceasefire signed by the ethnics. Instead, delegates decided to continue negotiating the draft containing frameworks for political dialogue with the government. 

The tenth draft ceasefire agreed at the conference will include guarantees to establish a federal Union and federal army; draw up the frameworks for political dialogue within 60 days of signing the ceasefire deal; start political dialogue within 90 days; and include interim period plans.