Opinion polls: Jokowi expected to emerge the winner today
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But he could lose I'nesia presidential election due to high number of undecided voters
Two public opinion polls released yesterday suggest that presidential candidate Joko “Jokowi” Widodo could win today’s presidential election, albeit with a tight margin.
A nationwide survey conducted by the Jakarta-based pollster Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), which is run by Denny Januar Ali, found Jokowi and running mate Jusuf Kalla’s popularity stood at 47.8 per cent.
The figure was 3.6 per cent higher than rival Prabowo Subianto, whose popularity stood at 44.2 per cent. Undecided voters were estimated at 8 per cent. The survey was carried out between July 2 and Saturday.
The LSI’s previous survey conducted in June indicated a gap of 0.5 per cent, still in favour of Jokowi. No figures were made available to evaluate undecided voters in the previous survey.
The LSI attributed Jokowi’s popularity rebound to the intensive direct campaigning that has targeted grass-root and middle-class voters.
“Our qualitative analysis found that the door-to-door campaigns conducted by Jokowi volunteers has successfully fired up the grass roots,” said LSI researcher Fitri Hari.
“Intensive social media endorsement from public figures and celebrities known for their integrity has also lured middle-class voters.”
Fitri, however, said Jokowi could potentially lose in the upcoming election due to the relatively high number of undecided voters and “unanticipated and extraordinary political manoeuvres” by his opponents.
“Around 8 per cent of respondents are still undecided about who to vote for. This is higher than the electability margin between the two candidates,” she said.
Another survey held by PolMark Indonesia from June 24 to June 28 found Jokowi’s popularity rating to be 44.6 per cent, or 3.6 per cent higher than Prabowo’s 41 per cent.
The survey also found that 68.5 per cent of respondents said they were not affected by the smear campaigns painting Jokowi as a Christian of Chinese descent.
“Such a finding was a relief since it underlined that smear campaigns do not have a future in our democracy,” PolMark CEO and founder Eep Saefulloh Fatah said.
The LSI and PolMark questioned 2,400 and 2,600 respondents, respectively, in their surveys.
The margin of error in the LSI’s survey is 2 per cent while PolMark’s is 1.9 per cent.
Commenting on the LSI and PolMark surveys, Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle politician Eriko Sotarduga, also a member of Jokowi’s campaign team, said he was optimistic that the pair could win the election by up to a 10 per cent margin.
“The two surveys were held before the final presidential debate and the end of the open campaign period on July 5. We believe our volunteers’ door-to-door campaign, combined with Jokowi’s performance during the debate, have attracted more voters,” he said.
