Political wind shifts fast

 

This followed the unprecedented talks between President Thein Sein with army top brass and political rivals including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Friday. The meeting took place in Nay Pyi Taw, ahead of 2015 polls viewed as a key test of democratic reforms under the quasi-civilian government and ahead of US President Barack Obama’s visit this month. The US leader had conversations with Thein Sein and Suu Kyi a day before the meeting. 

Some critics are calling Friday's hastily arranged get-together an attempt to burnish Myanmar's image ahead of a visit by Obama during November 12-13, his second to the country.

On the same day, presidential spokesman Ye Htut said that Myanmar's parliament will consider amending the country's constitution - which currently bars Suu Kyi from becoming president - ahead of elections next year.

Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar and visiting fellow at the Australian National University, said the timing of Friday's meeting, before Obama's visit, was highly significant.

"Without a doubt this is carefully timed. Even if (the outcome of) this meeting wasn't positive he (Thein Sein) could certainly say to Obama I've tried and made an effort to listen to people."

Myanmar have witnessed fierce political fights in the past months, mostly concerning the 2008 Constitution and the new electoral system approved recently by the Upper House for use in the 2015 election, which will be held in the last week of October of the first week of November. 

On streets, people call for the amendment to the Constitution. To alter the constitution, there needs to be support from a majority of over 75 per cent of parliament. Until this is changed can Myanmar amend Section – the clause that bars Suu Kyi from presidential race. The charter says anyone whose spouse or children are foreign nationals cannot become president. The Nobel laureate's late husband was British, as are her two sons.

Meanwhile, they also rally against the new proportional representation (PR) electoral system. Under the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, candidates win seats by receiving the most votes in their own constituencies. Under the PR system, the number of seats won by a party is proportionate to the number of votes received. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy Party has opposed the new system, along with ethnic political parties. 

Apparently under public pressure, MP Lt-Colonel Kyaw Myint, one of 110 military-appointed MPs in the chamber, said last week that any new electoral system adopted by the government must first be accepted by the majority of the people.

“Whatever electoral system Myanmar uses it should be explained clearly to the public and should be accepted by the majority of the public,” the Lt-Colonel said.

He also said the electoral system should not violate the Constitution or the country’s welfare, and reminded his colleagues that Myanmar “now has a multi-party democratic system in practice”. 

“Every competition has winners and losers,” he added, saying the winning party will do its best to govern the country while the losing party should accept its loss, review its weak points to prepare for the next election and collaborate with the winning party.

“They both should work for the nation and the people,” he said.

He also said it was important to have elected MPs who work for the people.

 

Swinging political mood

The situation seems to be on Suu Kyi’s side.

On Friday, Thein Sein and Suu Kyi walked into the meeting together to begin extraordinary discussions. The meeting opened with Thein Sein welcoming delegates including Suu Kyi, other party leaders, the army commander-in-chief and the head of the election commission before journalists were ushered out.

The meeting came a day after the White House said Obama spoke to Thein Sein and Suu Kyi about the upcoming elections, less than a fortnight before the US leader visits Myanmar as it hosts a major regional conference.

In a statement the White House said that during telephone talks with the Myanmar president Obama had "underscored the need for an inclusive and credible process for conducting the 2015 elections".

He urged that "every effort be made to conclude a national ceasefire in the short term". He also stressed the importance of taking more steps to address the humanitarian situation in Rakhine state as well as measures to support the civil and political rights of the Rohingya people, the White House said.

Obama also spoke to Suu Kyi about how Washington can "support efforts to promote tolerance, respect for diversity, and a more inclusive political environment", the statement said.

Under Thein Sein, a former general, Myanmar is now at a crossroads as it grapples with thorny political and constitutional questions and the search for a nationwide ceasefire to several rebellions.

He surprised the international community in recent years with a number of dramatic reforms that have seen international sanctions removed as the country opens up to the world. Most political prisoners have been released, Suu Kyi moves freely as a political player, and the government has set its sights on ending multiple civil wars with armed ethnic minority rebels.

But the country still faces a myriad of challenges - including an opaque legal system, creaking infrastructure and significant poverty levels - that will need to be tackled by any new government after next year's election.