Jail term for Anwar could trigger shock waves in M'sia's oppostion
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When the five-member Federal Court bench delivers its verdict on the Sodomy II case tomorrow, it will be deciding on more than one man's freedom.
If opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat’s de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim is acquitted of a charge of sodomising his aide Mohd Saiful Azlan Bukhari, it will be business as usual in the Parliamnet as he will remain as MP for Permatang Pauh.
But if the Court of Appeal verdict is upheld and he is found guilty, a lot could change in the Malaysian political landscape.
It would trigger a by-election in Permatang Pauh, and could send shock waves in the six-year-old Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
On March 7, 2014, the Court of Appeal sentenced Anwar to five years’ jail for sodomising Saiful, overturning an acquittal by the Kuala Lumpur High Court on Jan 9, 2012.
If the sentence is upheld by the Federal Court, Article 48 of the Federal Constitution will kick into effect, removing Anwar from the Permatang Pauh seat.
Article 48 reads that a MP will be stripped of the post if he or she is sentenced to a jail term of more than a year or a fine exceeding 2,000 ringgit (US$564).
What does this mean for Pakatan Rakyat? Many say the coalition could unravel as there is no clear leader besides Anwar who can hold the three member parties together.
However, Padang Serai MP N. Surendran, who is PKR vide-president and on Anwar’s legal team, believes otherwise. He says bonds between the constituent Pakatan parties – Anwar’s PKR, its partners, DAP and PAS – will be strengthened.
“Of course, Pakatan Rakyat will hold together if Anwar is sent to jail. In fact, a conviction will unite all three Pakatan Rakyat parties.
“The outrage will unite us. I have been on the ground, and I can sense the anxiety and concern of ordinary people as the decision date looms,” said Surendran.
“The conviction of Anwar will not be a death blow to Pakatan but will affect Barisan Nasional more as the voters would never forgive them,” said Surendran.
His sentiments were shared by DAP election strategist Ong Kian Ming, who said that the larger issue was how Pakatan would move forward if Anwar’s appeal failed.
“The failure of the appeal would be a significant loss to Pakatan,” said Ong.
Asked if the coalition would fracture due to possible DAP-PAS bickering, the Serdang MP said that the coalition had to honour Anwar’s wishes for Pakatan to remain united.
“The friction between DAP and PAS has always been there and it has just taken a higher profile since the hudud issue came to light. DAP is always committed to helping our coalition partners in any by-election. As for the actual strategy, we will cross that bridge later,” said Ong.
PAS secretary-general Mustafa Ali was more coy.
“I am praying that it will be positive for Anwar,” said Mustafa in a text message.
He declined to comment as to whether PAS had any contingency plans should Anwar be convicted.
In his appeal, Anwar is asking the Federal Court to set aside the conviction and sentence imposed by the Court of Appeal.
The hearing ran for eight days from October 28 to November 7 last year.
