Population declines in all but three regions

NCRA, the official research arm of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), shows that Ayeyawady Region has seen the greatest decline, with 200,000 fewer people than estimated before the 2014 census. 

Magway Region, Sagaing Region, Mandalay Region, Bago Region and Mon State each had approximately 100,000 fewer people than their pre-census estimates.

Population declined slightly in Tanintharyi Region, Kayin State, Rakhine State, Chin State and Nay Pyi Taw.

Myanmar conducted a national census between March 29 and April 10 last year; it was the country’s first census since 1983. Detailed information on the census will likely be released this month, according to reports.

Preliminary results of the census surprised both local and foreign observers. The results showed 51.5 million people nationwide – 8.5 million short of the estimated 60 million.

NCRA pointed out that Ayeyawady Region’s dramatic population decline was likely the result of migrations after Cyclone Nargis in 2008. 

Observers say the absence of population declines in Shan State and Kachin State, which share borders with China, could be due to illegal migration, while the population rise in Yangon Region is due to migration of people from Ayeyawady Region after the Nargis disaster.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has estimated that between two and four million Myanmar migrant workers are living in Thailand, while around 500,000 live in Malaysia, and 100,000 live in Singapore.

The census showed female population was only 1.7 million higher than the male population. 

Although Rakhine State is included among the areas that experienced population decline, observers expect the real population to have risen due to illegal migration from Bangladesh. These migrants, as well as much of Myanmar’s Rohingya population, whose migrant status is disputed, were largely excluded from last year’s census.