Study: 60% reduction in person-to-person contact not enough
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According to an estimate on how long it will take to stop the spread of infections with the novel coronavirus, an 80% reduction in person-to-person contact would halt the spread in about a month, while 65% reduction would take more than 70 days to do so.
The estimate compiled by Prof. Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University reiterated the importance of promoting telecommuting and minimizing outings.
Nishiura is an expert in analyzing the incidence of infectious diseases using mathematical methods. He is also a member of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry’s task force on coronavirus clusters. Based on the average infection situation in Europe, Nishiura estimated how the period of time required for infection to settle will change depending on how little contact there is.
If the figure remains at 60%, there will be no increase or decrease in the number of new infections and the same number of new infections will occur every day, according to the estimate.
