Why Thailand’s 20-year plan is a national disaster
The proposed 20-year national plan put forth by the Thai ruling elite reflects how the old guard does not understand the exponentially increasing aspect of information and associated technology.
Realising this makes any notion of a long-term plan for any institutional endeavour doomed to failure. The data by which we are supposed to make informed decisions is now literally doubling every year. This rate of increase means that any plan derived from current data and information cannot rely on force (or threat of force) to keep the plan viable and relevant. To do so goes against reasoning and is illogical.
The only “plans” that have a chance of maintaining integrity need to be flexible and adaptable, not rigid and dogmatic. “Change” itself is the only constant in life! The best we can hope for with regards to a 20-year vision is to present it as a mere suggestion or guide – not a codified prescription for disaster. Whatever the future holds, it will not be “business as usual”.
How does the 20-year plan factor technology and innovation into the Thai economy? 3-D printers, for example, could revolutionise and even eliminate factories, manufacturing and construction. (Check Youtube for videos of wonderful 3-D printed houses produced in a day with no “labour”.) Will automated cars replace taxi and transport drivers here? How will drones replace taxis (and drivers) and alleviate traffic congestion? (Dubai is scheduled to start using drones as taxis in the next few months). How is automation poised to eliminate most service jobs such as cashiers, bank tellers, restaurant workers, cooks and bartenders?
These are just a few issues that are easy to see and already here. How does the compulsory long-term national plan accommodate these and other fast-changing variables?
Darius Hober
