FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
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Finance 202: Bolton book dismantles Wall Street narrative of Trump as a China hawk

Finance 202: Bolton book dismantles Wall Street narrative of Trump as a China hawk

Investors spent more than a year-and-a-half obsessing over President Donald Trump's intentions toward China. Markets gyrated as the president whipsawed in tweets and other public utterances between threats of tariff escalations and reconciliation.

John Bolton's book, through explosive revelations told in detail, obliterates the notion President Trump was serious about forcing a fundamental overhaul of the U.S.-China relationship. Instead, Bolton depicts a president in over his head on the world stage, in thrall to his authoritarian counterpart, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and motivated primarily by desperation to cut a trade deal he could tout on the campaign trail.

Most damning, Bolton writes that Trump centered trade negotiations on his own reelection bid, explicitly seeking Xi's help in his race.

The president made that request when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit last June in Osaka, Japan. Trump opened by telling Xi there was "great hostility" to the Chinese among Democrats.

"Trump then, stunningly, turned the conversation to the coming U.S. presidential election, alluding to China's economic capability and pleading with Xi to ensure he'd win. He stressed the importance of farmers and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome," Bolton writes, according to an excerpt in the Wall Street Journal.

"Trump's conversations with Xi reflected not only the incoherence in his trade policy but also the confluence in Trump's mind of his own political interests and U.S. national interests," he writes. "I am hard-pressed to identify any significant Trump decision during my White House tenure that wasn't driven by reelection calculations."

Trump offered sweeping but seemingly contradictory rebuttals to Bolton's accusations Wednesday evening. He told the Wall Street Journal in an interview that Bolton "is a liar." And he tweeted the accusation: 

"Wacko John Bolton's "exceedingly tedious"(New York Times) book is made up of lies & fake stories. Said all good about me, in print, until the day I fired him. A disgruntled boring fool who only wanted to go to war. Never had a clue, was ostracized & happily dumped. What a dope!"

But in an interview with Fox News's Sean Hannity, Trump said Bolton "broke the law, very simple, as much as it's going to be broken," adding Bolton revealed "highly classified information," which would indicate the account is accurate. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also weighed in with a specific denial of Bolton's Osaka anecdote. "Absolutely untrue. Never happened. I was there," he said at a Senate hearing Wednesday. "I've no recollection of that ever happening. I don't believe it's true. I don't believe it ever happened."

Bolton presents others cases of Trump wilting to Chinese pressure, putting self-interest ahead of national priorities.

The president reversed penalties on Chinese telecom giants Huawei and ZTE to court favor with Xi, he writes. 

Both companies faced punishment for sanctions violations. But Trump intervened on ZTE's behalf against his own Commerce Department's actions in 2018. And in June 2019, his administration had recently barred Huawei from doing business with U.S. companies when Trump and Xi talked by phone. Xi told Trump the move imperiled the relationship between the countries, and Trump floated including the matter in trade negotiations.

As the WSJ's Michael Bender and Rebecca Ballhaus reported, "During their G-20 meeting two weeks later, Mr. Xi continued pushing on Huawei, 'sensing weakness' in Mr. Trump, Mr. Bolton writes. When Mr. Xi agreed to include Huawei in the trade talks, Mr. Trump agreed to lift the then-month-old ban, he says." And as Bolton reiterates, those trade negotiations were "primarily about getting Trump reelected in 2020."

Trump gave Xi the green light to continue persecuting its Uighur Muslim citizens.

The U.S. had been considering sanctions against Beijing for its treatment of its Uighur population. But at that eventful Osaka summit, "Xi had explained to Trump why he was basically building concentration camps in Xinjiang. According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do," Bolton writes. "In my government experience, it was the most irrational thing I ever witnessed any president do," he said, per Josh Dawsey's write-up of an advanced copy of the book.

The president signed a measure Wednesdayto potentially punish Chinese officials for their role in interning Uighurs - and pointed to the move in his Wall Street Journal interview as evidence he is tough on China. The bill, the Uighur Human Rights Policy Act, had passed the House and Senate unanimously. 

The president was similarly loathe to confront Xi over Beijing's anti-democratic crackdowns.

Bolton writes that when massive protests broke out in Hong Kong over Chinese attempts to assert control there, Trump turned a blind eye. "I don't want to get involved," the president said, according to the book. "We have human-rights problems too." He refused to issue a statement marking the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, remarking, "Who cares about it? I'm trying to make a deal," per Bolton.

And the president "was particularly dyspeptic about Taiwan, having listened to Wall Street financiers who had gotten rich off mainland China investments," he writes. "One of Trump's favorite comparisons was to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, 'This is Taiwan,' then point to the historic Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, 'This is China.' So much for American commitments and obligations to another democratic ally."

Bolton is facing intense criticism for not stepping forward earlier. His credibility is another matter.

The longtime foreign policy hand could have gone public with what he knew when he knew it - or, at least, testified about it during Trump's impeachment, critics say. But there are several reasons to believe Bolton's account.

There's the administration's last-minute bid to block its publication on the grounds it reveals classified information. And Bolton drew the book in part from contemporaneous notes he took so diligently in the White House that the practice spooked his then colleagues. Plus, his take on Trump's posture toward China comports with previous coverage of the president's approach - and the insights of the reporters behind it and experts tracking the story.

From the New York Times's Ana Swanson:

"Bolton's piece makes explicit something I often heard sources say while reporting on China trade talks: the president didn't care about structural issues with the Chinese economy, he was focused on rewarding his political base with agricultural purchases>"

From Bloomberg senior writer Shawn Donnan:

"Big takeaway from this excerpt from Bolton's book confirms something people who have tracked Trump on China closely know: Trump is not the China hawk his hawks want him to be... "

After signing the U.S.-China trade deal in January, Trump went out of his way to protect it. 

As evidence mounted that Beijing had misled the world about the extent of the threat posed by the coronavirus, Trump lavished praise on Xi's leadership with an eye toward preserving their agreement.

"Worries about rattled financial markets and their effect on the economy as well as the delicate negotiations with China over a trade deal - a key to Trump's reelection - have played a large role in influencing the president's friendly posture toward China over the deadly coronavirus, according to several senior White House and administration officials," Yasmeen Abutaleb and Josh Dawsey reported in mid-February.

Tensions between the superpowers have spiked amid the pandemic. But Trump officials are working to keep relations on track.

Lighthizer defended the trade deal in House testimony on Wednesday, saying "he expects China to fulfill its promise to buy an additional $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years, despite its slow start to placing new orders amid the coronavirus pandemic," David Lynch reports. 

And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Hawaii. "The two governments have sparred over several issues in recent months, including the origin of the novel coronavirus, mass protests promoting democracy in Hong Kong and denouncing racism in the United States, mutual accusations of lying, and the expulsion of journalists in both countries," the Post reported. "As if to underscore the gulf between them, U.S. and Chinese officials both told foreign diplomats that the other side requested the meeting in Hawaii."

Trump is arguing the Chinese would prefer Joe Biden win the November election. But despite the renewed rockiness, the Chinese reportedly have reached a different conclusion. Bloomberg's Peter Martin reported this week. In interviews with nine current and former Chinese officials, Martin found a "shift in favor of the sitting president." 

 

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