President Xi Jinping’s ASEAN tour: Reading China’s strategic moves

Assoc Prof Aksornsri Phanishsarn, lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University and Director of the Thai-Chinese Strategic Research Centre (TCRC), posted on her personal Facebook account "Aksornsri Phanishsarn" that:

During a time when Trump is causing global disruptions, Xi Jinping’s first trip of the year was to three ASEAN countries — Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. This move by China reflects something deeper and likely has underlying strategic reasons.

Why did President Xi Jinping choose to visit these three countries? The key reasons probably go beyond the official explanations widely circulated. For example:

Visiting Vietnam to mark the 75th anniversary of China-Vietnam relations, with Vietnam being China's number one trading partner in ASEAN.

Visiting Malaysia because it holds the ASEAN chair this year, and China has made massive investments there.

Visiting Cambodia due to its long-standing alliance with and loyalty to China and etc.

So what could be the deeper reasons beyond the commonly cited ones? Let’s take a closer look, country by country, starting with:

Vietnam: During the Trump era of harsh tariffs, Vietnam had to quickly make concessions to the US to survive economically, such as offering to reduce tariffs to zero, since its economy heavily depends on exports to the US.

From China’s perspective, Vietnam holds critical strategic importance. To prevent Vietnam from leaning too far toward or fully submitting to the US, Xi Jinping urgently flew in to reaffirm China’s strong ties with its "comrade" Vietnam.

He aimed to reinforce the spirit of brotherhood with Comrade To Lam, Vietnam’s top leader, while invoking shared patriotic sentiment, resisting foreign domination, and recalling their common struggle against colonialism and imperialism.

Beneath the surface, China may also be quietly concerned that under General Secretary To Lam, Vietnam may not prioritise relations with China as much as it did under the late Nguyen Phu Trong, the former party leader.

Crucially, both Trump and Elon Musk have business interests in Vietnam. The Trump family has a massive $1.5 billion investment project in To Lam’s hometown, and Trump has close personal ties with major Vietnamese business figures, such as Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, the owner of Vietjet Air.

Therefore, during this visit to Vietnam, China moved swiftly to expand bilateral cooperation, resulting in the signing of 45 agreements between the two countries.

Malaysia: Under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia has shown a positive and open attitude toward China. As a Muslim-majority country, Malaysia has also taken a strong stance against the West, particularly against Israel, in a way that aligns with China's strategic narratives.

Xi Jinping sees Malaysia's potential to play a pivotal role in the Global South bloc alongside China, serving as a counterweight to US dominance on the world stage.

Seizing this timely opportunity, Xi visited Malaysia to win over the country, a Muslim nation that is vocally anti-Zionist, and to deepen ties with a nation that holds considerable economic potential. China is keen to pull Malaysia closer as an ally in the Global South, especially by pushing for Malaysia’s full membership in BRICS.

Moreover, under Anwar’s leadership, Malaysia has warmly welcomed significant Chinese investments, including major infrastructure projects like the ECRL railway. Leading Chinese companies have also invested in Malaysia’s semiconductor industry, at a time when some ASEAN countries are facing rising domestic resistance to Chinese capital.

Cambodia: Under the leadership of Hun Manet, Cambodia’s stance toward China may not be as unwaveringly loyal as it was during his father Hun Sen’s era. As a modern-minded leader educated and intellectually shaped by the West, Hun Manet may seek a more balanced foreign policy, potentially leaning less heavily toward China and engaging more actively with Western countries.

(Recently, a senior executive from SpaceX, the provider of Starlink, met with Hun Manet.)

Recognising this shift, Xi Jinping chose to make Cambodia the final stop on his trip before returning to China — a symbolic move to reaffirm the strategic relationship, especially in the realm of security. The visit aimed to ensure that Cambodia remains firmly within China's sphere of influence.