Oil prices surge on Middle East crisis; Thailand warns of possible sharp pump hike by March 4
Energy officials say escalating Middle East tensions are driving global oil prices higher and could trigger a sharp rise in Thailand’s domestic fuel prices around March 4 unless the situation eases, as agencies check stockpiles and monitor shipments via Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Thailand may face a sharp rise in domestic fuel prices—especially around March 4, 2026—as global oil prices surge amid an escalating Middle East crisis, according to a source at the Energy Ministry.
The source said authorities are checking national stockpiles and closely monitoring oil shipments through key maritime routes to manage supply risks, but warned that Thailand’s retail prices remain tied to global market movements.
Global oil prices jump, diesel seen testing $100 a barrel
The source said energy markets and the global economy were jolted by reports linked to the conflict, pushing global oil prices up rapidly. Diesel could break US$100 a barrel, after closing at around US$92 a barrel on Friday, February 28, 2026, the source said.
“The accelerating trajectory of global oil prices will inevitably affect retail prices in Thailand because we are tied to global market mechanisms. It will also worsen the global economic outlook through higher energy costs and rising prices of goods,” the source said.
March 4 highlighted as “risk point” for Thai pump prices
The source assessed that domestic retail prices on Monday, March 2, 2026 may not rise significantly, as they are referenced to global market prices from the previous trading day. With Tuesday, March 3, 2026 a public holiday, an immediate adjustment is also unlikely.
However, Wednesday, March 4, 2026 was flagged as a key “risk point”. If global negotiations do not ease tensions, domestic oil prices could rise sharply in line with global markets, the source said.
Agencies check stockpiles and track shipments via Hormuz and Red Sea
Relevant energy agencies, including the Department of Energy Business and the Energy Policy and Planning Office, are assessing Thailand’s energy security by urgently checking remaining oil stock levels to determine how many days of demand can be covered.
They are also monitoring tankers travelling through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which are strategic routes for global energy trade, to see whether deliveries are being delayed or disrupted.
Initial assessments will focus on whether reserves can cover domestic demand for the coming months—such as two to three months, or around 61 days—to cushion potentially prolonged volatility.
Warning: escalation could worsen energy and economic risks
The source said the most critical condition is that the situation must not broaden or draw in additional countries, as that would increase risks to energy stability and the global economy.
