Thailand Braces for Severe El Niño as Water Office Warns of Dry Spells into 2027
ONWR coordinates 14 state bodies to tackle impending drought and clear drainage paths, confirming Chao Phraya dam reserves remain sufficient
- Thailand's national water office is warning of a severe El Niño event, with prolonged dry spells potentially lasting into 2027 and exceeding the 2015 drought crisis.
- The phenomenon is forecast to intensify and peak between October and December 2026, with its effects lingering through mid-2027.
- While 14 government agencies are coordinating emergency measures, major dam reserves in the Chao Phraya River Basin are currently at adequate levels due to forward planning.
- Authorities are urging the public and agricultural sectors to adopt strict water conservation measures to mitigate the impact of the expected drought.
ONWR coordinates 14 state bodies to tackle impending drought and clear drainage paths, confirming Chao Phraya dam reserves remain sufficient.
Thailand's Office of the National Water Resources (ONWR) has issued a warning that an impending El Niño phenomenon could prove more severe than the country’s 2015 drought crisis, with prolonged dry spells potentially stretching well into 2027.
The agency convened an urgent meeting with 14 key government entities—including the Thai Meteorological Department, the Royal Irrigation Department, EGAT, GISTDA, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration—to coordinate emergency measures for the 2026 rainy season, Krungthep Turakij reporter Thiwaporn Batsuwan reported.
Presiding over the session, Paitoon Kengkarnchang, deputy secretary-general of the ONWR, instructed state agencies to immediately clear obstructions along waterways. Although national cumulative rainfall is currently running 10 per cent below average, several regions continue to suffer localised flooding caused by construction projects blocking natural drainage paths.
El Niño Set to Peak Late 2026
Forecasts presented by the Thai Meteorological Department indicate that El Niño conditions are set to intensify sharply between October and December 2026, with a high probability of developing into a "very strong" event that could surpass the 2015 crisis.
Upper Thailand faces a particularly high risk of severe rainfall interruption. Although the phenomenon is expected to weaken gradually thereafter, its effects are likely to linger through mid-2027.
Chao Phraya Dam Reserves Remain Adequate
Despite declining reservoir inflows, the ONWR confirmed that major dam reserves across the crucial Chao Phraya River Basin remain at reassuring levels due to forward planning during the 2025 rainy season.
Projected usable water reserves across the basin's four principal reservoirs—Bhumibol, Sirikit, Kwae Noi Bamrung Dan, and Pasak Jolasid—are estimated at 12,105 million cubic metres as of 1 November 2026.
While lower than the 17,245 million cubic metres recorded in November 2025, the figure remains substantially higher than the 4,247 million cubic metres logged during the peak of the 2015 crisis.
Calls for Public and Agricultural Water Conservation
While current reserves offer a vital buffer, Paitoon cautioned against complacency, warning that areas outside formal irrigation networks remain particularly vulnerable to the extended dry spell.
The ONWR has urged farmers to follow government advisories closely and adjust planting schedules to mitigate crop damage, while appealing to the public and commercial sectors nationwide to adopt strict water conservation measures.
