Pheu Thai faces crisis after back-to-back by-election defeats

The Pheu Thai Party is facing turbulent times following consecutive by-election losses in Si Sa Ket and Kanchanaburi, signalling a sharp decline in public confidence just months ahead of the next general election.

In Si Sa Ket’s Constituency 5 on September 28, Pheu Thai’s Phurika Sommai lost to Bhumjaithai’s Jintawan Traisaranakul, who secured 40,246 votes against Phurika’s 31,577. 

The trend continued on Sunday (October 19) in Kanchanaburi’s Constituency 4, where Visuda Wichiansilp of Bhumjaithai won 53,648 votes, defeating Gen Chinnawat Mandech of Pheu Thai, who received 36,540.

Losing directly to its chief rival, the Bhumjaithai Party, has forced Pheu Thai to reassess its electoral strategy. With political momentum waning and state power slipping from its grasp, winning back voter confidence now looks harder than ever.

The fading legacy of the Shinawatra brand

Since its origins under the Shinawatra family, from Thai Rak Thai to People Power and Pheu Thai, the party’s political capital has long relied on the enduring popularity of Thaksin Shinawatra. But the 2023 election marked a turning point.

The so-called “devil’s deal” that enabled Thaksin’s return to Thailand, and his controversial prison sentence reduction from eight years to one, has left a deep public scar. His extended hospital stay at the Police General Hospital only fuelled criticism, culminating in his return to prison.

The Paetongtarn–Hun Sen controversy

The real blow, however, came from the leaked video call between Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen, which severely damaged Pheu Thai’s credibility. The longstanding relationship between the Shinawatra and Hun Sen families only heightened suspicion, causing a backlash among Thai voters.

Aware of its declining popularity, the party avoided sending a large campaign team to the Si Sa Ket and Kanchanaburi by-elections, opting instead for low-profile operatives to manage local dynamics. Paetongtarn herself was notably absent from the campaign trail, amid fears her presence could drag down candidates’ support rather than boost it.

Bhumjaithai’s advantage under Anutin

In contrast, the “blue camp” led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul maximised its political machinery. Anutin personally joined both by-election campaigns, boosting morale and visibility for his candidates. His dual role as party leader and head of government also energised local networks and bureaucratic channels, particularly under the Interior Ministry’s influence.

Financial fatigue within Pheu Thai

Another growing crisis for Pheu Thai lies in the management of its political resources. Traditionally, the Chan Song La residence (Thaksin's residence) relied on wealthy financiers from multiple camps to fund MPs and candidates, offering ministerial portfolios as post-election rewards.

Insiders say Pheu Thai has rarely used its own funds, depending instead on “investors” expecting returns. However, this time, the strategy may no longer hold. Despite Suriya Juangroongruangkit acting as the main sponsor, other financiers have pulled back, fearing potential backlash if they appear aligned against the “blue camp.”

The contrast could not be clearer

Bhumjaithai’s superior funding network, coupled with effective local mobilisation, proved decisive. Though costly, the investment strategy yielded results and set a winning template for future elections.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai now faces a double crisis, an image tarnished by the Paetongtarn-Hun Sen controversy and a financial base weakened by shrinking donor confidence. Whether Thaksin can steer his party out of this downturn, even from behind bars, remains to be seen.