Bhumjaithai softens nationalist pitch amid backlash fears

The Bhumjaithai Party appears to have stepped back from a nationalist campaign message it had previously relied on to boost its chances of forming a government without bringing in its main rivals as coalition partners.

In the final week before the February 8 election, party leader Anutin Charnvirakul has notably moderated his tone and signalled a more conciliatory stance towards key rivals, including the Pheu Thai Party and the People's Party.

Nationalist messaging takes centre stage earlier in the campaign

Earlier in the campaign period, the party positioned itself along a clear divide between conservative and liberal camps, presenting itself as a leading force on the conservative side and warning voters that failing to support its candidates would hand victory to the liberal bloc.

That approach was driven publicly by Supamas Isarabhakdi and Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn.

Supamas Isarabhakdi repeatedly framed the election as a two-sided contest — a conservative camp led by the party versus “the other side” — using the line: “If you don’t choose us, they’ll win.”

Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, campaigning across 14 southern provinces, argued that voters who “love the nation” should back the party. He also attacked the People’s Party by referencing its controversial “what’s the use of the military” rhetoric.

Anutin shifts to unity message in the final stretch

However, in the last week before polling day, Anutin Charnvirakul appeared to retreat from confrontational messaging built around nationalism and division.

“I think I’d better keep my mouth shut — no more talking about it. We’d better build unity,” he said when asked by reporters to comment on the party’s apparent nationalist campaign.

Analysts cite backlash risks and limits of a solo path to power

Political observers say the shift reflects concern among senior party figures about potential backlash from stoking political divisions through nationalist themes.

Observers and academics also argue the party may be reassessing the feasibility of its ambitious goal of winning up to 200 House seats — enough to form a government with small and micro parties, without relying on major parties.

Coalition signals widen towards Pheu Thai and People’s Party

More recently, Anutin Charnvirakul has suggested the party could work with a broad range of parties, including Pheu Thai Party — despite having strongly attacked it during a major campaign event in Bangkok on January 30.

He has also indicated that the People's Party is not being treated as an opponent. While noting that the People’s Party has pledged not to vote for him as the next prime minister after the election, he said it has not ruled out joining a coalition led by his party.

Seat expectations and contingency scenarios

Earlier, party leaders estimated they could win between 180 and 200 MPs, citing the party’s 160 MPs from the most recent House running again, as well as about 70 candidates who narrowly lost previously. Anutin Charnvirakul also pointed out that the party’s results in the past two elections fell short of internal targets by only one or two seats.

Still, analysts note that electoral outcomes depend on multiple factors, and they believe the party now recognises it may struggle to hit its upper target — making it prudent to keep coalition options open.

Some observers also speculate that the party is preparing for scenarios in which it finishes behind the People's Party. In such a case, they suggest Anutin Charnvirakul could seek to join forces with Pheu Thai Party and other parties to form a coalition capable of contesting government formation.

Expert view: next government likely needs major partners

The view that no party is likely to secure enough seats to govern without major partners was echoed by Napon Jatusripitak, Managing Director and Director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics and coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme.

He said many analysts expect the next government to be a coalition with two or three major partners. He added that the People’s Party and its rivals are competing for the same pool of young and first-time voters, which could split votes and reduce the chances of any single-party government.