NIDA Poll predicts Bhumjaithai wins election, People’s Party sweeps Bangkok

The National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA Poll) has projected that the Bhumjaithai Party will win Sunday’s election, securing 140–150 House seats nationwide, while the People’s Party is forecast to finish second despite sweeping all 33 Bangkok seats.

Survey-based projection, not an exit poll

NIDA Poll said the projection is not based on an exit poll, but on an opinion survey conducted between January 28 and February 7.

It said it waited to release the findings until after polling stations closed at 5pm, as election rules prohibit disclosure of polling results during the final week before election day.

Methodology and sample size

The pollster said it was confident the results would be highly accurate, citing a multi-stage sampling method and a large sample. NIDA Poll said it surveyed 3,000 voters in the provinces and 5,389 sampled eligible voters nationwide, and analysed the data using media analysis and political probability analysis.

People’s Party forecast to take all 33 Bangkok seats

NIDA Poll said its survey found the People’s Party would sweep all 33 constituency seats in Bangkok.

Party-list vote: People’s Party leads nationally

At the national level, based on party-list popularity, NIDA Poll said the People’s Party remained in first place:

• People’s Party: 37.17% (projected 32–37 seats)
• Bhumjaithai Party: 19.27% (projected 18–19 seats)
• Pheu Thai Party: 18.03% (projected 17–18 seats)
• Democrat Party: 13.90% (projected 12–13 seats)
• Setthakit Party: 3.98% (projected 1–3 seats)
• United Thai Nation Party: 1.80% (projected 1 seat)
• Kla Tham Party: 1.20% (projected 1 seat)
• Other parties (such as Thai Sang Thai, Thai Pakdee and Palang Pracharath): 4.65% combined (projected 8–19 seats)

Total-seat projection: Bhumjaithai on top nationwide

While the People’s Party leads in Bangkok and in the party-list vote, NIDA Poll said Bhumjaithai is projected to have the most MPs overall once constituency and party-list seats are combined.

Projected total seats:

• Bhumjaithai Party: 140–150 seats
• People’s Party: 125–135 seats
• Pheu Thai Party: 110–120 seats
• Democrat Party: 35–45 seats
• Kla Tham Party: 35–45 seats
• Other parties (Palang Pracharath, United Thai Nation, Prachachat, Setthakit and others): no more than 55 seats combined

Referendum: majority backs charter rewrite

On the referendum on rewriting the charter, NIDA Poll said public sentiment appeared relatively clear. It found 54.68% approve, while 31.54% do not approve, and 13.78% selected no opinion.