Foreign media: Thai election’s three-way race raises instability fears

International media have turned their attention to Thailand’s 2026 general election, with Reuters reporting that polling stations opened nationwide for a vote defined by a three-way contest between conservative, progressive and populist forces. 

The report says no party is expected to win a clear parliamentary majority, meaning the shadow of prolonged political instability could continue to hang over the country. 

Reuters notes that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul set the stage for a snap election in mid-December amid escalating tensions along the Thailand–Cambodia border. Analysts cited in the report said the conservative leader timed the move to capitalise on a surge in nationalist sentiment. 

At the time, Anutin had been in office for less than 100 days after taking over from Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the ousted prime minister from the populist Pheu Thai Party, whose removal was linked to the Cambodia crisis, Reuters said. 

The report adds that Pheu Thai, backed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, remains in contention despite a more difficult outlook in opinion surveys. Reuters said Thaksin was jailed just days after his daughter was removed from office. 

However, Reuters said the progressive People’s Party led opinion polls throughout the campaign, pitching a platform of structural change and economic reform in Thailand, the region’s second-largest economy. 

The report adds that while the People’s Party has stepped up attacks on Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party and on Pheu Thai, it may still lack enough support to secure a majority on its own—raising the risk of repeating the fate of its political predecessor. 

Reuters recalls that Move Forward, the People’s Party’s predecessor, won the most seats in the 2023 election but was blocked from forming a government by conservative lawmakers and an appointed Senate, allowing Pheu Thai to take power instead. 

The report situates the election within Thailand’s long-running struggle between the royalist–nationalist conservative establishment and popular democratic movements—an era marked by recurring instability, street protests and repeated military interventions.

Constitution referendum

Reuters also reports that voters are being asked on election day whether Thailand should begin drafting a new constitution to replace the 2017 charter. If the public backs a new charter, the next government and parliament would be able to start the drafting process, with further referendums required before any new constitution can take effect.

Diverging strategies

Reuters says Bhumjaithai’s rise—fuelled by nationalism linked to the Thailand–Cambodia tensions—alongside Pheu Thai’s decline after last year’s political turmoil has accelerated political realignments and reshaped the contest, including in rural areas where large blocs of votes are at stake. 

The report adds that some parties have sought to recruit influential local figures, including former rivals, to tap into personal loyalty networks that often decide outcomes in remote constituencies. 

Reuters also says the People’s Party has adjusted its approach, tempering parts of the progressive movement’s anti-elite posture and bringing in external talent to convince voters it has the capacity to govern. 

Finally, Reuters reports that former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has re-emerged as a factor in the race, using his personal popularity to revive the Democrat Party, which could become an important player in post-election coalition negotiations.

Global spotlight on Thailand’s vote

Associated Press (AP) has also been closely tracking the confrontation among Thailand’s three main political camps: progressive politics, populist policies, and the patronage-based system.

The battle for the support of more than 53 million eligible voters is taking place against a backdrop of slowing economic growth and a surge in nationalist sentiment.

Although more than 50 political parties are contesting the election, analysts say only three major parties have sufficiently strong organisational structures and nationwide voter bases to realistically compete for victory: the People’s Party, the Bhumjaithai Party, and the Pheu Thai Party.

The election outcome is expected to shape a critical choice over whether Thailand moves towards reform or preserves its existing power structures.

The New York Times has been following Thailand’s election with a strong focus on economic issues, reporting that the country is facing its weakest economic growth in decades. The World Bank forecasts Thailand’s economy will expand by just 1.6% this year—the lowest rate in Southeast Asia.

The country is also among the most unequal societies in the region. According to World Bank data, household debt stands at around 90% of GDP, one of the highest levels in Asia, compared with about 25% in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, CNA has been providing round-the-clock coverage of the Thai election, noting that more than 400 constituencies are being contested nationwide. One of the most critical battlegrounds is Bangkok, which accounts for 33 parliamentary seats.

During the 1990s and 2000s, Bangkok voters were traditionally a stronghold of the conservative Democrat Party. However, since 2018, support for the People’s Party has grown steadily, culminating in a near-clean sweep of seats in the capital at the 2023 election under its former name, the Move Forward Party.

As a result, retaining its existing support base may prove more challenging for the People’s Party this time, as it has fielded many new candidates across constituencies. At the same time, the Democrat Party—showing signs of revival—is mounting a determined effort to reclaim ground it previously lost.