Tensions between US and Iran fuel oil price surge, Brent rises by 1.5%

Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated once again, with US President Donald Trump warning Iran that if it continues to reject nuclear talks, the next US military response would be "stronger than before." The situation has sent ripples through global markets, including a significant spike in oil prices as concerns grow over potential disruptions to Middle East supplies.

On January 29, 2026, Trump made it clear in a social media post that Iran must return to the negotiating table for a "fair and just" nuclear deal under conditions of no nuclear weapons. His comments are part of a broader diplomatic and military strategy aimed at exerting more pressure on Iran, whose military tensions and regional influence have been rising.

In response to the growing conflict, Trump revealed that USS Abraham Lincoln, a US aircraft carrier, is heading closer to Iran. This follows the relocation of the ship from the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, analysts also anticipate that the tensions could spill into greater economic instability, particularly as oil prices responded immediately. On January 29, oil prices surged for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude climbing by 1.5% and WTI rising by 1.7%. This increase is largely driven by concerns that any potential conflict could disrupt oil supply routes in the region, especially as Iran is a major producer within OPEC, producing roughly 3.2 million barrels per day.

Geopolitical risk, combined with supply-side issues like the unexpected drop in US crude stockpiles by 2.3 million barrels, has also pushed prices higher. Some analysts have warned that continued escalation could drive Brent oil to as high as $72 per barrel if the tensions continue to escalate.

At the heart of the escalating geopolitical risks is not just the military threats but also the economic power of oil-producing nations. The Middle East continues to be a critical hub for the global energy market, and any instability can have long-lasting ripple effects on the global economy.

As the US-Iran standoff intensifies, all eyes will be on whether oil prices continue to climb and how this situation affects the broader stability of the global energy markets, especially as nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt express concern that escalating conflict could lead to missile or drone strikes, potentially threatening critical energy transport routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

In conclusion, the ongoing diplomatic and military tensions between the US and Iran could push oil prices even higher, with analysts projecting that the geopolitical uncertainty may lead to further price increases in the near future.