Iran threatens to halt oil exports if attacks continue, Trump warns of harsher response

The conflict in the Middle East intensified further after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Tuesday that it would not allow even a single litre of oil to leave the region if attacks by the United States and Israel continued. 

The statement prompted US President Donald Trump to warn that any Iranian attempt to block oil exports from the world’s key energy-producing region would trigger a far harsher response from Washington.

Trump said at a press conference on Monday that the United States had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military capabilities and that the conflict could end sooner than the four-week timeframe he had previously outlined, although he did not clearly define what outcome would amount to victory.

At the same time, the war aims of the various sides remain markedly different. Israel has said openly that it wants to bring down Iran’s clerical regime, while most US officials have said their main objective is to destroy Iran’s missile capability and nuclear programme, even though Trump has also suggested that the war would end only if Tehran accepted Washington’s terms.

Iran says it will decide how the war ends

An IRGC spokesperson said through state media that Iran, not its enemies, would determine when the war ended, adding that if attacks by the United States and Israel continued, oil exports from the region would be blocked entirely.

Trump responded by warning that if Iran attempted to obstruct oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would strike back with even greater force.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important energy routes, carrying about one-fifth of global oil trade. But the conflict has effectively shut the waterway for more than a week, leaving tankers unable to pass and forcing some producers to halt pumping as storage facilities begin to fill. 

New supreme leader rattles global markets

Volatility in global financial markets rose after Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s new Supreme Leader on Monday, a development that weakened hopes of a swift end to the conflict.

Oil prices surged sharply before retreating the following day after Trump said the war could end sooner than expected and reports emerged that the United States was considering easing some energy sanctions.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said Washington might waive oil-related sanctions for “some countries” in an effort to ease energy shortages. Sources said this could include further relaxation of restrictions on Russian oil exports, a move that could complicate Western efforts to keep pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. 

Brent crude fell more than 10% on Tuesday after surging by as much as 29% the previous day to its highest level since 2022, while global stock markets began to recover as energy prices eased.

Losses mount as the conflict widens

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations said at least 1,332 Iranian civilians had been killed and thousands more wounded since the United States and Israel began air and missile strikes across Iran in late February. 

In Tehran, thick black smoke covered the sky after an oil refinery was hit, heightening environmental concerns. The head of the World Health Organisation warned that the fire could contaminate food, water and air.

Turkey said NATO air defences had intercepted a missile fired from Iran after it entered Turkish airspace, marking the second such incident since the war began. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.

The Israeli military also said it had launched fresh strikes in central Iran and had hit Beirut after the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement fired across the border into Israel.

Global repercussions spread

The impact of the war has begun to spread beyond the immediate battlefield. Australia granted humanitarian visas to five Iranian women footballers after they sought protection, fearing persecution if they were forced to return home.

Canberra also announced that it would deploy a military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and send missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help strengthen defences against Iranian attacks.

In the United States, rising petrol prices are becoming a significant political issue ahead of the November midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 67% of Americans expect fuel prices to rise in the coming months, while only 29% support the war.