Brent drops US$1.93 a barrel on October 27 amid Iran talks

Brent crude fell US$1.93 a barrel on October 27, 2026, as continued diplomacy involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan eased some concerns over Middle East oil supplies. Shipping disruption and the absence of an agreement to end the US-Israeli war with Iran nevertheless kept prices near six-month highs.

Brent futures settled at US$113.88 a barrel, down 1.67%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude lost US$1.86, or 1.83%, to close at US$99.90.

US stocks mostly advanced on October 27, supported by a rally in technology shares linked to enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

Iran talks continue as Houthis claim Saudi refinery strike

Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to maintain discussions aimed at strengthening cooperation on peace and security, Iranian state media reported.

Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s security council chief, met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on October 27 after holding talks with representatives of the other three countries on October 26. Iranian state media reported that Khamenei stressed the need to protect Iran’s interests and uphold its conditions for ending the war.

Prospects for a settlement remained uncertain as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer. The Houthis claimed on October 27 that a ballistic missile had struck Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s largest oil refinery.

“Continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the expanding military presence in the Gulf are keeping supply risks in place, even as diplomatic headlines encourage some of the recent premium to unwind,” analysts at Gelber & Associates wrote in a note.

Hormuz risks prompt UBS to raise its Brent forecast

Swiss bank UBS now expects Brent to remain near US$110 a barrel through the end of 2026, compared with its previous year-end forecast of US$100.

UBS warned that increased shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been accompanied by more attacks on vessels. The bank expects those risks to become more acute if US naval support weakens.

October has recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways since the Washington Institute for Near East Policy began tracking maritime security incidents worldwide in 2017, according to the think tank’s data.

Brent had climbed above US$117 a barrel in the previous week, its highest level since April, following a wave of Iranian attacks on tankers around the strait.

“The impression now is that there is a significant risk premium in crude oil prices for the risk that the US/Israel will attack Iran in the coming weeks,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at Swedish bank SEB.

Israel’s election adds uncertainty over the Iran war

Investors also assessed how Israel’s October 27 parliamentary election might affect the conflict. The vote could end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s time in office, although polling pointed to a close contest in which his Likud party could still prevail.

“The outcome of today’s parliamentary elections in Israel could also be significant for further developments in the war with Iran, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, if re-elected, might attempt to achieve regime change in Iran,” Commerzbank analysts wrote in their October 27 assessment.

Russian refinery recovery could reduce November crude exports

Russia’s crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports are expected to decline in November as domestic refineries increase output following maintenance, according to two traders. Russian refiners also plan to produce more diesel to meet the requirements of an agreement reached between Washington and Moscow in October.

Russian refineries increased crude processing by 25% in the second half of October compared with the beginning of the month after persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on the plants ceased, three industry sources told Reuters.