Will Yingluck give precedence to reconciliation over politics?

It is clear what the Yingluck government should do when the flood waters recede, which may take more than a month for some areas. What is uncertain is whether the Pheu Thai-led administration will do it. Politics has given way to surging water for so long and it will surely try to reassert itself. Several potentially explosive agendas remain unfulfilled, namely a proposed amnesty for Thaksin Shinawatra, legal amendment to curb the military’s power, or constitutional changes to perhaps make it all happen at the same time. It’s interesting to see if the prime minister will find a real reconciliation opportunity in this crisis, or go straight back to the hot issues that her government tried to touch before water came cascading down the North of Thailand.

The “proper” priority is obvious. It must be about reconstruction and rehabilitation so that the country can be on the road to recovery as soon as possible. The government has set aside a sizeable amount of the budget for the purpose, which is a move in the right direction. Setting aside money, however, must be followed by honest action and political will. Also, over the next six months Thailand should be a country free from bad-blood politics that could hinder assistance or help to those who need it most. This may sound like a wishful thinking, but the truth is, consequences will be dire if the opposite happens.

As a government, the Yingluck administration is in a better position to dictate the course of Thai politics during the crucial post-flood period. No matter how its opponents may try to cook up destructive politics, much will depend on what the government really plans to do. As long as there is no real fire, whatever smoke the opponents try to create will just blow away.

This is probably too early to demand a post-flood national master plan from the government. But surely, there are issues that the prime minister and her team must start thinking about right now in addition to the obvious question of how to salvage a hard-hit economy. There are several real issues for real sufferers that need to be addressed, such as cheap food supplies, unemployment, hygiene and health care.

Post-flood social welfare will clash with the government’s populist policies. For example, how can the government force a Bt300 minimum wage upon industries reeling from the flood without the scheme backfiring on the workers themselves? And, of course, 

people may need a lot of new homes and new cars, but how can the government subsidise their purchases when there are other pressing needs that also require a lot of state money?

Then we will be confronted with the issue of water management, and how little time we will have to make things right. It will start raining substantially again as early as next May and the dams in the North could be filled up quickly again. This is not an issue because it will have to be addressed along with Thailand’s seasonal farming and urbanisation.

To add to that, there are the long-standing problems that must be tackled once and for all: deforestation is chief among them. Coping with the consequences of this still unfolding natural disaster and preventing its repetition require a swift, comprehensive action and planning while time is not quite on the government’s side. In fact, time is not on the nation’s side, either. 

In other words, a strife-torn Thailand will no longer have the luxury of letting political camps try to tear each other to pieces. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra of all people must know what can start a new fire and make last year repeat itself. She simply cannot let it happen, as the real work before her is so enormous. Her present priorities have obviously been reset, and she will have to make sure her future ones will be, too.