Data reveals the challenges posed by climate change

The huge effects of global climate change could not have been more challenging than what we have witnessed in this country this year. For Thailand, there was both drought and flood disaster in 2011. In the first half of the year, several areas, especially in the North, Northeast and Central plains, ran various drought risks. Then, the second half of the year saw significant flood risks in several of the same, or nearby, areas of the country. In other words, we have experienced both extremes of climate in less than 12 months.

According to Dr Royol Chitradon, director of the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) at the Ministry of Science and Technology, climate change makes it nearly impossible to forecast drought and flood risks with accuracy. As a result, the Irrigation Department has been blamed for storing too much rain water during the earlier months of this year, even though there were signs of drought, as suggested by scientific evidence.

Then, the annual series of heavy tropical storms began during the second half of this year. Unfortunately, there has been an unprecedented amount of rainfall north of the country’s major hydropower dams, namely the Bhumibol and Sirikij dams. The amount of water in Bhumibol Dam, for example, shattered all previous records since it was built during the 1960s. Downstream residents from Nakhon Sawan and Ayutthaya provinces to Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi and Bangkok have therefore experienced the worst floods in more than 50 years.

For specialists like Dr Royol, statistical models on weather patterns covering the past several decades are not useful anymore due to climate change. Now, experts study climate patterns for only the previous 4-5 years, and then await real atmospheric and ocean data for crucial inputs into their database system.

At the HAII, the vision is to develop and apply science and technology for agricultural and water-resource management in order to cope with critical climate change. Regarding water, the HAII – recently set up as part of an initiative by His Majesty the King – has developed technology to collect real-time data (such as via tele-metering), while developing an information system for integrated water resource management. Gathered data and studies are relevant to weather and water situations both locally and regionally.

The agency also uses techniques and scientific research methodology such as modelling and risk management for decision-making in both normal and emergency situations. Regarding agriculture, the agency has also developed an information system to collect agricultural data on productivity, harvests, land use, risks and various economic factors, to support decision-making in farm management. Geo-spatial information system (GIS) and management information system (MIS) technology is used in for both water and agricultural data.

With the deployment of computer servers, which have a combined capacity of 24 terabytes, the agency’s database system covers all relevant data, including storm directions, rainfall information, sea surface height and temperature, dam water level, water movement modelling and warning systems for flood and drought, for more effective water management. The system also provides automatic real-time data on solar intensity, temperature, humidity and air pressure.

According to HAII, climate change has obviously presented new challenges to Thailand’s water resource management, with this year’s massive floods affecting more than 30 provinces being a case in point.

Scientific data shows that annual rainfall has been above average in the last decade (2001-2010), with greater inter-annual variability compared to the past (1950-1997). Based on monthly rainfall maps, such as those for March, May, August, September and October, there has also been a greater seasonal change of monthly rainfall in terms of timing, location and intensity.

The agency has also observed that the El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena have alternated more frequently, resulting in higher climate variability. This means there will be higher inter-annual reservoir inflow variability, as only 6 per cent of Thailand’s rainfall is collected in large dams and reservoirs and only 13 per cent of farmland is irrigated.

The country’s biggest challenge is to solve the flood and drought problems together.