Shady dealings set the stage for another crisis
Play
The dark plot could not have been more perfectly executed.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Monday went to visit flood victims in Singburi. She stayed overnight in that province, though she could have flown back to Bangkok by helicopter. As it happened, Yingluck said she could not preside over the Cabinet meeting the following day. In her absence, Chalerm Yoobamrung, the deputy prime minister, gleefully took charge.
Chalerm held a secret Cabinet meeting with certain ministers and high-ranking officials to deliberate an amnesty decree for ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It was not so secret, though. A Cabinet member came out to leak the amnesty plan to the media. Chalerm sounded very upset at the leak, which was more or less part of the plot to create political uproar. He said the Council of State would have to vet the procedures of the amnesty plan, which was far from its final shape.
As usual, Yingluck pronounced her innocence. She quickly distanced herself from the hot potato. How could she know anything about the amnesty decree, since she did not attend the Cabinet meeting? She then rushed to close the issue by saying that amnesty had to follow the rule of law.
The opposition smells blood. So do the yellow shirts. They could not believe that the government would play the amnesty trump card at a time when floods are still ravaging Bangkok and the outskirts. Millions of people are still suffering.
Yingluck’s political standing has been wobbling over her administration’s gross mismanagement of the flood crisis. In the aftermath of the deluge, her government is expected to face mass lawsuits and demonstrations from those who have lost fortunes and loved ones in the floods, which could have been better managed to minimise losses.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon came here to shore up Yingluck’s standing. Yingluck held a joint news conference with Ban, followed by another with Clinton. The presence of both global leaders in Thailand was carefully choreographed to bolster Yingluck’s sagging stature.
On the surface, Ban and Clinton’s visit to Thailand ahead of the Asean and East Asia Summits in Bali was designed to show support for Thailand, which has faced its worst flood disaster in 50 years. But make no mistake about the US’s shifting policy. Clinton is now shifting US military priority to Asia. Both President Obama and Clinton have begun aggressive foreign policy and security arrangements to contain China, which is rising rapidly to challenge US global leadership.
Before heading for the East Asia Summit in Bali, Clinton announced that she would be updating the US’s security relationship with allies in Asia – Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand. Clinton said the US wants to ensure that its alliances enjoy political support and that its defence cooperation with each country was enough for “deterring provocation”.
“We want our alliances to be nimble and adaptive so they can continue to deliver results,” she said.
China is apparently the fat target at the opposite end.
The US is now doing a checklist of its allies in Asia. On Wednesday, Obama and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard unveiled plans to deepen the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, with plans for 2,500 US Marines to operate out of a base in northern Australia. At the same time, Clinton went on board the USS Fitzgerald in Manila Bay and signed a defence pact with the Philippines. The message was clear to the world that the US was reviving and augmenting its military presence in Asia.
The US has a strong military alliance with Japan and South Korea. Singapore is already a US outpost.
The relationship between Bangkok and Washington has deteriorated since the 2006 coup. This has led Washington to build up strategic relationships with Vietnam and Indonesia.
Washington has made it clear that it backs Yingluck and the Pheu Thai-led government. There was a vague message of military cooperation between Bangkok and Washington. Yingluck said during the joint news conference with Clinton that Thailand has been in talks with the US over the possibility of the US using the U-tapao Airport. At this stage, such cooperation would involve only humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
It is an open secret the US would like to use the U-Tapao facility for its warships and aircraft. Yingluck is now inching Thailand towards a possible confrontation with China, with which it has developed a good relationship.
As expected, a question was raised at the joint news conference about the amnesty decree for Thaksin. Before Yingluck could make any blunders on this tricky issue, Clinton quickly came to her rescue. Clinton said: “The US encourages the Thai government to move on with reconciliation and consolidate a strong democratic process. We stood by each other in times of challenge, and we are standing with you now. The US will identify flood damage and provide military and civil support to Thailand.”
With this passing comment, the US will back Yingluck to the end in the face of any turmoil that ensues over amnesty for Thaksin. This is, of course, in return for closer cooperation with the US on military and security arrangements.
The time line has been set. His Majesty the King’s Birthday is on December 5, the date that the amnesty is supposed to be announced. Amnesty is the King’s royal prerogative. This time the government wants to make amnesty run an unnatural course by changing the conditions to fit a pardon for Thaksin.
I have just heard that Pinthongtha Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, will marry on December 12. As a father, Thaksin is entitled to be present at his daughter’s wedding, so goes the story. He wants the pardon for his two-year jail term to come in time for a return by that date.
Thailand is fatefully heading towards another political crisis in December that could make or break the country.
