Convicting Arroyo won't be easy

Analysts say that convicting Arroyo – a disliked leader whose presidency was besieged by corruption scandals – will not be a walkover.

“Filipinos are convinced she’s guilty, but the Justice Department will find it difficult to gather hard evidence,” said political science professor Benito Lim. “It’s going to be a long, long process that may even last beyond the end of Aquino’s term,” he added.

Some of the corruption complaints filed against Arroyo – which have not yet become formal charges – have already been investigated in congressional hearings while she was in power and probed by the local media. These centre on alleged misuse of public funds; among them, that US$17 million was milked from a farmers’ fund to help pay for her 2004 election campaign.

But nothing has really stuck. On the electoral charge, Comelec has witness testimony allegedly linking Arroyo, as well as former election officials and others, to vote fixing in the 2007 mid-term polls to get her senatorial candidates elected. At the time, she faced a largely hostile Senate.

Comelec’s main witness, Norie Usman, is the former right-hand man of a leader of the infamous Ampatuan clan, which was a close ally of Arroyo. According to his statement, he heard her instructing Zaldy Ampatuan, a suspended regional governor and an accused in the case, to ensure a clean sweep for her candidates in the clan’s stronghold in  Maguindanao province.

Ampatuan and other clan leaders are on trial for the election-related killings there of 58 civilians two years ago. Relatives of victims launched a civil suit against Arroyo, claiming she could have prevented the killings.

The Justice Department has rejected Ampatuan’s offer to become a state witness against his brother and father in the “Maguindanao Massacre”. But it has not ruled out Ampatuan becoming a witness for the prosecution in the election case.

It remains to be seen whether more witnesses will ow come forward to shed light on the polling in Maguindanao, as well as the even more controversial issue of whether Arroyo cheated in the 2004 presidential election.

But historian Rudy Rodil, who grew up in Maguindanao, said: “Filing cases, testifying against the perpetrator, upholding the law, all these are risks to life and limb, not only to witnesses and officials involved, but also their families.”

Arroyo, who once said she was a good economist but a poor politician, is set to become the country’s second president to stand trial for corruption.

A substantial paper trail helped prosecutors convict her predecessor Joseph Estrada of taking payoffs from gambling syndicates and an illegal share deal. He was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2007, but was pardoned by Arroyo.

While he was allowed to sit out his six-year trial under house arrest at his plush estate near Manila, she may not be so lucky. For now, she is under “hospital arrest” in the exclusive St Luke’s Medical Centre in Manila, where she has been treated for a bone disorder. Her camp says she needs specialist treatment abroad. A detention facility is being prepared for her in a police compound if she is denied house arrest.