Don't count on change happening quickly in Burma

From a distance, the recent landmark visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma looks nice and should be welcome. It gives the impression that Burma is closing ranks with the rest of the Asean members and the international community after decades of isolation as a pariah state.

Images of the hug and kisses between Clinton and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi were beamed across the globe, giving us hope that perhaps sooner rather than later, the Burmese people will see their beloved “leader” move up in the political ranks and play a meaningful role in the country’s governance system.

But this development, the so-called “Burmese Spring”, is a leap of faith. None of us should entertain the romantic notion that Burma is going to transform rapidly because of pressure from outsiders. This authoritarian regime, like other authoritarian regimes, always negotiates from the position of life or death. It’s a matter of survival for the powers-that-be. In other words, the generals are not going to give in to something without getting something bigger in return.

The Burmese regime has nothing to lose and so much to gain from this encounter. Clinton’s visit gives it much-sought-after legitimacy. Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, but keep in mind that nothing is irreversible, especially in Burma.

From the perspective of international relations, people often point to how bringing the Burmese closer to the West, namely the US, will help keep China and North Korea at bay. That may be true. But one cannot ignore the fact that deep in the jungles, away from the media spotlight, civilians, namely the ethnic minorities, are still being tortured and killed. What takes place in the meetings between the political bigwigs may not resonate in remote places where rape and de facto ethnic cleansing are being carried out.

The US has to show that it has not abandoned the minorities. Ethnic leaders like Khun Tun Oo, a Shan politician, are still being locked up for no real reason, while hundreds of other political prisoners are still behind bars.

Burma may have re-entered another cease-fire period with some of the various ethnic minority groups like the Wa and Shan rebels, but others like the Karenni are still fighting the regime. Years of civil warfare have displaced over a million people. Many have fled into Thailand and are residing in refugee camps that dot the Thai-Burmese border. Many others have taken refuge in Bangladesh.

The ethnic minorities make up about 40 per cent of Burma’s 56 million people. They occupy mainly the border areas, which are resource-rich.

Democracy and democratisation is fine, as pointed out by Shan activist Hseng Noung from the Women’s League of Burma. But the sticky issue of internally displaced people and the treatment of minorities must not be neglected, she added.

Engagement with Burma, said Hseng Noung, must be carried out in a comprehensive manner in order to ensure that whatever is achieved – peace, national reconciliation – will be sustainable.

David Steinberg, a Burma scholar at Georgetown University, pointed out in a recent interview with the Associated Press that the conflict with the minorities is “the most intractable problem facing the state since independence”. He argues that it is more important than ‘democracy’ as an issue.”

Changes on the ground will come slowly if the so-called Burmese Spring is able to materalise. But it won’t be easy, and Thailand, as Burma’s neighbour, is not out of the loop. Indeed, the road to peace is not just through the new capital Naypyidaw. It will have to run through mountains and remote valleys where armed ethnic groups are situated, and through villages where minorities have been displaced by a still-brutal regime that has yet to show that it is not indifferent to the plight of its own citizens.