Experts raise fears of North Korean power struggle

Opinions differed over whether the hereditary transfer of power to his third son, Jong-un, will face serious obstacles in the communist state, which Kim had ruled with an iron fist since his father and national founder Kim Il-sung died in 1994.

Some argue that the process will proceed as planned given years of “systematic” preparations, but others float possibilities of power struggles among the elite given his lack of experience and a relatively short grooming period.

The North claims that Swiss-educated Jong-un, who was internally tapped as heir apparent in 2009, was born in 1982. Kim Jong-il had 20 years of preparation before taking power, while it has been only several years since Jong-un began being groomed.

On the surface, the succession plan appears to be well under way. Following the announcement of Kim’s death, state media reported that the North’s military and people pledged to follow the leadership of the heir. Jong-un’s name also appeared on top of the funeral committee member list, which reflects his position in the power echelon. 

After Jong-un was given the newly-created post of vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission and appointed as a four-star general last September, Kim was put at the centre of the international spotlight as successor to his iron-fisted father.

Experts anticipate that, as his father did, Kim Jong-un may try to solidify his power base in the ruling Workers’ Party and the military during a lengthy mourning period, which is expected to be three years – the same period of mourning spent for his grandfather.

Koh Yoo-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Dongguk University, said that although some degree of instability is expected in the beginning, there would be no big impediments to Jong-un taking control of the North.

“The North has prepared for the power succession since leader Kim suffered [a stroke] in August 2008. I think a transitional system featuring Kim’s family members and close associates will lead the country temporarily,” he said.

“The fact that the announcement of his death came earlier than thought indicates that the North is confident in carrying out the ongoing power succession. There may not be any serious challenges to the heir apparent.”

Other experts, however, raised possibilities that the power succession process could get bogged down in conflicts among the military and party elites.

“The leadership system in the North is not unitary. There are elites in charge of security and those in charge of the military. Jong-un has yet to gain full authority over personnel issues. Without a unitary system for the elites, there is a possibility of conflict,” said Lee Seung-reol, North Korea expert at Seoul’s Ewha Woman’s University.

“We cannot rule out the possibility that Jong-un will be ultimately eliminated. Kim Jong-il had nearly 20 years to prepare for the power succession, but Jong-un has had only two to three years. That can hardly be seen as [good] preparation. It appears that there is little stability in the power succession process.”

Some observers said that those who have served as “guardians” for Jong-un could rise as his rivals at a time when Jong-un is still being groomed to take the helm of the communist state.

One of the key guardians is Jang Song-thaek, the husband of Kim Jong-il’s younger sister, Kim Kyong-hui.

Jang, vice chairman of the decision-making National Defence Committee, has influence over not only security matters, but also military and economic issues. Some say during the possible power vacuum, Jang could become a challenge to Jong-un.

Kim Heung-kwang, head of the North Korean Intellectual Solidarity group, said that there appears to be some veiled feuding within the North Korean leadership, citing the North’s funeral committee list.

“The funeral list is the exact ranking of the leadership. It shows civilian elites have been pushed back, which means some internal feuding is taking place,” said Kim, a former professor at the Communist College in the North, who defected to the South in 2004.