A litmus test in changing times for the Taiwanese

Next weekend, Taiwan’s 13 million voters out of a population of 23 million people will again go the polls and pick a new leader. Their choice will affect their lives and the future of this democratic nation. The incumbent Ma Ying-jeou and his challenger, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen, are fighting to the last breath to win voters’ confidence in their leadership and policy platforms. This time around, it is hard to predict who will come out on top, as they are running neck and neck.

Obviously, the central question is which candidate the Taiwanese people trust the most during this era of fast-shifting cross-straits events. The islanders are pragmatic people. They will shift and change their preferences to ensure that their standard of living and independence are best guaranteed and their security is maintained. The relationship with mainland China is the most important issue in this election. 

The Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang Party, enjoyed greater support last time because of its fierce anti-Chinese policy put forth by the now disgraced Chen Sui-bian. But for the past five years, the cross-straits relationship has bloomed, enabling increased trade and investment, more tourism and other forms of people-to-people contact. Strange as it may seem, many Taiwanese people feel that the improved cooperation between China and Taiwan has not filtered down to the grassroots level. They are bitter and want their feelings heard. In order to stay on in his job, President Ma must convince these frustrated voters that his party will be able to bring more equitable prosperity to all. But time is running out.

Tsai is a moderate when compared to the harsher rhetoric of past DPP leaders. She is charismatic and might very well become the island’s first female president – joining other Asian countries with women leaders. For the DPP, Taiwan will continue to stay at arms length from China while preaching closer cooperation and continuing the engagement set forth by the Chinese Nationalist Party, with some modifications. The trick will be to keep the island’s identity intact without upsetting Beijing. Tsai will have to become an Asian Houdini. At the moment, with the influx of visitors, students and finance from the mainland, the Taiwanese are perhaps feeling a bit overwhelmed.

What is sad about Taiwanese politics is that it is too parochial. Taiwan could easily have served as a model for democratic development for other Asian countries because it tries not to ignore openness and transparency. But the Taiwanese leaders are not too Westernised; they have not reached out to broader Asia, except Japan. Taipei always argues that this has been due to the limitations of the one-China policy espoused by the mainland. But that is not always the case, and it has been due to the islanders’ own negligence that Taiwan has undermined its own position in Asia. Closer ties with many other nations in the region, especially non-political ties, could strengthen Taiwan’s position in Asia. 

The future of Taiwan rests in Asia, not in the West. The newly elected president next week must reach out to Asia because stable China-Taiwan relations are pivotal to the region’s peace and prosperity. Taiwan’s confidence in the region will be improved when it does not serve either of the superpowers.