On Burma, caution must always be the watch word
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Despite the semblance of political reform, the world must be careful about expecting too much too soon from the still authoritarian regime
For the first time in decades, there is a sense that real change is on the way in Burma. Over recent weeks, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague, philanthropist George Soros, as well as journalists and diplomats, have been lining up to meet recently released pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has recently announced she will run in parliamentary elections.
A significant number of political prisoners have also been freed from prison, but as recently released Burmese activist monk Ashin Gambira – one of the leaders of the “Saffron Revolution” – pointed out, the character of the Burmese government is still very much that of a dictatorship. Among the other released prisoners are well-known 1988 Generation student leader Min Ko Naing, and Shan leader Hkun Htun Oo.
Certainly, the atmosphere in Burma seems to be one of optimism and openness, as foreign reporters are permitted to enter the country. But many are keeping their fingers crossed because they know that, given the kind of grip the military has on the country, all these reforms are reversible. It’s understandable that people are glad to see the release of hundreds of political prisoners, but the fact that these people should not have been jailed in the first place makes one wonder if their release is enough. What really counts is what the recently elected Burmese government does from this point on. In other words, what is the assurance that the military will not roll back the clock if things don’t go the way they want them to go?
It's clear that the nominal government of Thein Sein wants Suu Kyi on the inside. But how far they will tolerate her push for democracy is another matter.
On the security front, the government has over the last few months succeeded in re-establishing a series of ceasefire agreements with various ethnic armies, including the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), which came last Thursday.
But the one group that will continue to give Burma a headache is the 20,000 strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), dubbed by the US State Department as the world’s largest armed drug-trafficking gang. Moreover, half a dozen Wa leaders have been indicted by US federal courts on drug-related charges.
The UWSA entered into a ceasefire with the Burmese in 1989 but the agreement fell apart in 2009 after the junta attacked the Kokang Chinese, one of the Wa’s major allies. The attack was part of a Burmese attempt to bring all of the ethnic armies, ceasefire or not, under the command of the military. But when it became clear that the ethnic armies would still be willing to fight, the Burmese backed off and initiated a new round of ceasefire agreements. Fighting with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is also still ongoing, and no one can say for sure when the two sides will return to the negotiating table.
Regardless of the progress on this front, one should not be fooled into believing that ceasefire agreements represent permanent peace. They just mean the two sides, for the time being, have stopped shooting at each other. It means that they are going back to the drawing board to plan out their political and/or military moves. The Burmese tore up the 1989 ceasefire agreement without being provoked, and there is always the belief that nothing is written in stone when it comes to dealing with the Burmese government and these ethnic armies.
Beside the various challenges that include bureaucratic reforms, ending human rights abuses, regaining the trust and respect of the international community, the Burmese government will have to contend with these kinds of sticky issues on the ground.
For one thing, the Burmese sector of the Golden Triangle is still largely a lawless area where opium warlords and drug armies play for keeps. Last October a group of Shan bandits hijacked two Chinese cargo ships on the Mekong River and killed 13 crew members in cold blood after they refused to pay a toll.
Back in 2002 when Chinese engineers were blowing up boulders on the Mekong River to make room for these cargo ships, nobody thought about these bandits or the drug armies.
As the moves towards reform begin to roll out, there will always be political landmines on the ground that will continue to remind the whole world that nothing comes easy in Burma.
