If Republicans ran US-Asia relations

In deciding their candidate to face incumbent US President Barack Obama, domestic issues have been the focus, and not foreign policy. Yet more than usual, the two are inter-linked, especially in relation to US-Asian ties.

When Americans decry jobs lost and unfair trade, many fingers point to Asia, and especially China. As American citizens ponder their future, the question arises about competition with China to be number one in the world. Asians should look to the Republican nomination process not only as a partisan exercise, but also for what it shows about the mood amongst Americans. More, given that President Obama’s poll numbers have been slipping, it is by no means inconceivable that a Republican could win the election late this year.

Until recently, the Republican race has been a dizzying array of “flavours of the day” with many unlikely candidates receiving their 15 minutes of fame. Now after the initial results, Mitt Romney seems to be the favourite. The former Massachusetts governor is known to be a relative moderate in his party, but his foreign policy rhetoric on the campaign trail has hit some extreme notes.

Romney argues that America must be the indisputable, singular leader of the world and not just “one of several equally balanced global powers”. He has pointedly complained that China has cost America millions of jobs, and accused Beijing of currency manipulation.

China has responded to denounce that statement. Yet Romney is not alone. Similar views have been voiced about China by other candidates. Rick Santorum, for instance, has vowed to “beat China” in a trade war. Perhaps the only moderate Republican on this issue has been Jon Huntsman, previously ambassador to China under Obama. Yet his moderation and ability to speak Mandarin have not helped him and, indeed, in some circles, have hurt his candidacy. Huntsman has since dropped out of the Republican race and lent support to Romney.

Almost all Republican candidates pledge to keep America strong and present across the world. Romney has pledged to “reverse President Obama’s massive defence cuts” and increase troop numbers by 100,000. Former Texas governor, Rick Perry, has said that he would return US troops to Iraq and more besides, to prevent Iran from wasting America’s sacrifices in the recent war.

The only exception on this point is Ron Paul, an unconventional Republican libertarian who has surprised with consistently solid poll results. Paul envisages an America that would be “non-interventionist”. His critics accuse him of “isolationism”, arguing that pulling out of America’s current international commitments would mean abdicating leadership.

So the good news for Asians who fear an isolated America is that most Republicans, like President Obama, stand for the idea that American presence and engagement in the world and Asia should continue. 

The terms of engagement, however, differ. Republican frontrunner Romney’s views, for example, are quite different from those of the Obama administration.

Romney suggests that foreign aid should be cut, while the size of the US military should be enlarged to ensure it continues to be the greatest in the world. Foreign aid has been a critical part of the Obama administration’s toolbox for dealing with difficult regimes, like in encouraging democratic reform in Burma and in talks with North Korea. On military size, President Obama’s proposals combine modest cuts and a refocus on Asia. He will depend on a leaner military presence combined with the concept of “smart” power – a package of economic, political and “soft” persuasion.

The Obama administration’s policy to “return to Asia” has been welcomed by many and yet has already raised eyebrows in Beijing, where many suspect it is an effort to balance and contain China’s rise. What more if Romney does win and increases the US military.

American pundits reassure Asians and themselves that rhetoric by the candidates on the campaign trail will not be translated into real policy. It is true that past candidates have made strong declarations about certain issues, only to quietly put them aside once they win.

But the fact that candidates neglect their promises does not deny their resonance amongst the voters. After all, this is the first US presidential election where there is a sense that China and Asia are not only rising, but that Beijing may seek to usurp American leadership. What is said on the campaign trail may not only raise temperatures in the US but also across the Pacific.

 

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, where Rachel Ho is currently a research intern.