Pakistan plays matchmaker for the Taleban

A public statement of this nature has never been made, and it contrasts with the resistance Pakistan is said to have put up during talks in Islamabad with Afghan President Hamid Karzai last week. On the surface this is a good thing, a development that puts Pakistan in the position of being seen as facilitating peace in the region rather than blocking or at least not furthering it. But its proof will lie in concrete steps.

Will this statement be backed up by actual efforts to bring to the Afghan negotiating table any Taleban leaders Pakistan does have access to? And notwithstanding the obviously deliberately timed meeting with the ISI chief just prior to the announcement, does Gilani’s statement have the genuine backing of the military, which would inevitably have to be involved in any such efforts with the Taleban?

If it has some substance to it, the new stance could mark another twist, albeit a welcome one, in a situation in which America, Afghanistan and Pakistan seem to be jostling for control of the process. And it remains unclear to what extent Pakistan truly believes its mantra of “Afghan-led” and “Afghan-owned” talks, only reaffirmed by Gilani’s carefully phrased encouragement that the Taleban join “intra-Afghan” talks. Does this really reflect a desire to let Afghanistan reach a political agreement without Pakistani involvement?

Or is it more an indication to the US that, if it wants to be a player, Pakistan should be too? As the country repairs its own relationship with America, the question of its role in the process will inevitably come up, and from that perspective the prime minister’s words could be seen as laying the groundwork for greater Pakistani involvement.

Of course the biggest wild cards in this scenario are the Taleban themselves. Will they agree to talk to what they consider a “puppet regime” in Afghanistan? And will they be able to bridge the splits within their own ranks over talks with the Americans and even over the notion of talks at all?

Karzai is clearly making hectic efforts, apparently out of a desire not to be shut out of the process as America proceeds on its own track. And Gilani’s statement demonstrated a step forward on Pakistan’s part. But the Afghan reconciliation process remains beset with competing interests, and it is far too soon to derive too much optimism from any of these moves.