What happens elsewhere can have an effect here

The effects of the current tension in the Middle East may be closer to home than Thais like to think. We tend to be complacent that we are immune from conflicts that happen in the other parts of the globe. But we should closely monitor the simmering conflict in the troubled region, as it will have both direct and indirect effects on Thailand. Already, Thai consumers have felt the impact of the fluctuation in global oil prices, partly because of fears of an Iranian supply cut. Concern that tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme could lead to world crude supply disruption have pushed prices higher in recent weeks.

The Thai government often says that Thailand is friendly with all nations. But there remains the possibility that Thailand could be a soft target for attacks from whichever side. The American Embassy along with some other foreign missions, recently warned travellers of possible attacks in Thailand. Bangkok has been on alert since mid-January after the Thai police arrested a Lebanese man with alleged links to Hezbollah. It is suspected that he was planning a terrorist attack on Israeli or other foreign nationals in Thailand. The recent botched explosions in the Sukhumvit area of Bangkok have only increased the concerns of embassies here. The motives behind the suspects in these incidents have to be thoroughly investigated. Thai police are currently investigating whether there are more Iranians involved in connection with an alleged plot to attack Israeli diplomats in Bangkok. 

The Middle East conflict has led to exchanges of words between the diplomatic missions here. Israel has blamed Iran for the Bangkok blasts, as well as earlier attacks on Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia. But Tehran has rejected accusations it is behind a terror campaign against the Jewish state.

Whatever the motives, the events have dealt another blow to the tourism industry. For instance, wholesale sellers at Pratunam market say that the number of buyers, many of them coming from the Middle East, has fallen in the aftermath of the explosions. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accuses Iran of strengthening its nuclear programme, backed by the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Speculation has been mounting that Israel intends to launch a unilateral military strike against Iran’s atomic facilities in order to stop it from developing nuclear weapons. 

Iran, however, says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes like energy production and cancer treatment. The media there regularly announces what it says are technological and scientific breakthroughs, described as major national achievements. The US and Israel have not ruled out military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, which they say are aimed at developing weapons technology. 

The world is now hoping that all sides will come to the negotiating table and let the diplomatic channels find a solution to this crisis. In the meantime, Thailand will have to carefully deal with the simmering conflict, without appearing to show bias or favour to any side. The Thai government will have to carefully assess the situation to ensure that it plays its diplomatic cards right. 

The government should also send a clear message to the world that Thailand will not tolerate anyone using Thailand as a base for terrorist attacks. If there is the slightest piece of evidence that any party, or government, is behind such actions, then the government must not hesitate to act decisively against that ill-intentioned party.

Apart from the security alert, the Thai public should also be prepared for economic impacts. First of all, oil prices could further rise. The government should also inform the public that they may have to be prepared to live with market turbulence. The price of oil will affect the overall inflation rate and economic growth. The government’s free spending populist policy may not be wise amidst the ongoing global economic and political uncertainties right now. 

International political and economic conditions are intertwined. What happens in different parts of the world will often have an effect in Thailand. We would do well to remember this fact.