After the polls, Myanmar moves on, but how far?

The by-elections over the weekend saved both Myanmar and the opposition party leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. Under the world’s scrutiny, the administration of President Thein Sein passed the poll test despite some irregularities pointed out by international observers. 

In general, it was a free and fair election by the normal standards that can be considered within Southeast Asia. Interestingly, no international observer dismissed the electoral outcome as a sham this time around, unlike the 2010 general election that was universally condemned. Like it or not, the latest by-elections should be credited as some of the cleanest in the region due to the watchful eyes of the international community.

With her National League of Democracy sweeping 44 out of 45 seats at stake, Aung San Suu Kyi is now foreseeing a “new era” in her country’s political scheme of things. Her future role as a parliamentary politician must be watched and studied carefully. She is no longer an outsider anymore – a position from which she has been portrayed as a political icon for democracy and human rights. From now on, whatever she says and does will be scrutinised by the Myanmar people and the world. 

She has a lot to live up to. After all, the majority of parliamentary members are still controlled by the military and its nominee United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Indeed, Suu Kyi will have to use her popularity and intellect to push the people-oriented agenda that she promised to do during her campaign ahead of the polls. 

For the more sensitive agenda of constitutional amendment, she will have to move slowly. Otherwise, she could alienate the powers that be, which have allowed her to gain political ground inside the country. The settlement of the ongoing conflicts with the armed ethnic minorities must also be a priority due to the weight given to the subject by the international community.

President Thein Sein has won kudos this time but he is putting himself at risk because his USDP failed to win a single seat, even in Naypyidaw, the government’s seat of power. He was actually surprised by the polls’ outcome. As such, those who seek to undermine his authority and mandate could have a field day. 

What emerges over the next few months will be crucial in determining if the ongoing reforms will continue at an accelerated or slower pace. Obviously, the issue of ending economic sanctions is still at the heart of Myanmar’s diplomatic offensive. At the Asean Summit this week, the Asean leaders jointly called for the end of sanctions against Burma. The EU will probably be the first to respond in the near future. For the US, the Congress will need time to amend several laws that require approval from US lawmakers.

It seems that changes are irreversible now. Myanmar has won praise worldwide due to these by-elections and the recent multi-dimensional reforms. Nobody in Naypyidaw, including the powerful Tatmadaw (the armed forces), would now want to change this strong positive sentiment towards the country. All stakeholders should obviously want to join in and make sure the once isolated country can join the global community as soon as possible.