Rebels in Syria need to show some maturity

Tomorrow, the year-long fighting in Syria is scheduled to come to a halt. Few are optimistic that this ceasefire will last long but it is the main item on the table at this very moment that could possibly lead to peace.

The onus is on the rebels to behave. This means respecting the rules of engagement and abiding by the agreement if they are to maintain their respectability in the eyes of the international community, on which they greatly depend. 

Now is not the time to provoke a military response from the President Bashar al-Assad regime, which would inevitably be harsh. Perhaps now is the time to regroup and reconfigure their effort – in a manner that doesn’t include violence.

Unlike other conflicts in the Arab world, there is a great confusion in Syria about a possible leadership change. There is a big question about who might take over – if and when the regime falls. As of right now there are still doubts about whether the opposition Syrian National Council can step in and take over. 

Fear of a possible “meltdown” after the Assad government falls has forced many powerful countries, like the United States, not to become directly involved in pushing for regime change.  

The Friends of Syria, a group of more than 70 countries, met over the weekend in Turkey. It wants to see the fighting stop and for President Assad to step down.

A sort of breakthrough came afterwards at the UN Security Council meeting on Monday when UN-Arab League special envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, said President Assad was willing to pull back tanks and artillery and withdraw troops from cities starting April 10. 

Besides respecting the ceasefire, the immediate challenge now for the SNC leaders is to stop bickering, unite and form a common position. The SNC has been criticised for lacking unity. But the Friends of Syria is not much better in this respect, unfortunately. They failed to come up with a common position in Turkey. Some want to go for broke, while others were willing to pursue a political settlement.

The Syrian government has promised to withdraw – from tomorrow – and the rebels have promised not to open anymore fronts. However, some fear this may just be a lull before a big fight that many claim is inevitable.

But this could be an opportunity for Assad to institute reforms to change the course of the conflict. Ideally, he should step down and go into exile but that appears very unlikely.

The fighting in Syria is political in nature, involving a iron-fisted regime that has been around for four decades and an opposition force made up of secular, liberal thinking peeople, as well as the more fundamentalist Salafi fighters with indirect support from Saudi Arabia. With their extremist tendencies, the Salafi should not be the ones calling the shots for the opposition.

In fact, if the current course of the conflict does not change, Saudi Arabia’s contribution could further discredit the opposition in the eyes of the ordinary Syrians, who may not want more Saudi/Wahabi meddling in their internal affairs. 

One can be sure that Assad will cash in on this very point if the opportunity emerges. So it’s important that the opposition get its act together and shows that they can be a force to be reckoned with, politically speaking. 

With regard to other revolutions in the Middle East, the world didn’t really see what kind of leadership the Libyan rebels had until the Gadhafi regime fell. Many were not impressed. But this time around, the international community wants to know what kind of leaders they may end up deal with and how this will affect governance, if the Assad regime collapses.