Asean and China seem to be drifting further apart

After nearly two decades of stable relations, Asean and China are moving in different directions regarding the ongoing series of conflicts in the South China Sea. In the past, confrontations and disagreements between China and Asean member countries were kept under wraps as far as possible for fear that they would intensify and fuel further conflicts. Now, the opposite is true. It now seems that the more media coverage of these issues, the better, especially from the point of view of Asean claimants to maritime territories in the South China Sea. This is particularly true of the Philippines and Vietnam.

Among the Asean claimants, the Philippines has now become the most vocal critic of China. Manila’s objective is quite clear – to make sure that all Asean countries get involved in the dispute against the Chinese over maritime territory. 

At the moment, Asean is divided between those members that are claimants and those that are not. Among the two groups, there are also different views. Most of the Asean countries want China to resolve these conflicts peacefully, in ways that will leave both sides in a “win-win” situation. However, it now seems that all sides have given up realistic hope of this. For the past decade, they have tried to work out a common approach to beginning a joint cooperation programme but no one can agree on technical issues.

China insists that the South China Sea disputes should be settled bilaterally with each of the Asean claimant countries, not the rest of Asean. This point of contention continues unabated, and it explains why Asean has refused China’s offer to take part in the formulation of desirable elements in the Code of Conduct that has been proposed for the disputed areas, and indeed all of the South China Sea. 

Beijing wants to be part of any discussions early on, to pre-empt whatever disagreements might occur in the future. China knows that the disputes will put its international reputation at stake. Both the Philippines and Vietnam continue to highlight Chinese aggression, knowing that the international community will perceive this as a weakness on Beijing’s part.

Manila has already asked Asean to help settle its disputes with China, knowing well the limit of the regional grouping’s power. The appeal has put Cambodia, the current Asean chair, into focus. 

At the recent Asean summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen unsuccessfully tried to ward off criticism of Asean’s handling of the controversy. If this trend continues, relations among the Asean claimants and non-claimants will be further strained, and that could have far-reaching ramifications for the Asean-China relationship and East Asia as a whole.

Asean must quickly hold consultations with China to ensure that the two sides can agree on the Code of Conduct as soon as possible. Otherwise, incidents at sea will continue and they will be played up in the media and will encourage the assertiveness of all countries concerned – something Asean does not want or need at this moment. China also has to realise that, in order to resolve the disputes, serious negotiations will be required with all Asean claimants and perhaps even the grouping as a whole. 

Any attempt to separate the Asean members will end in failure and will delay peaceful settlement. China should realise that this strategy has not worked for the past decade. 

Indeed, the faster Asean and China come to an agreement on the Code of Conduct, the better it will be. Both Asean and China can work out proposals to de-internationalise these issues on their own, if they have political will to do so. And the time to do so is now.