Appointing Jatuporn would ruin hope for reconciliation

Once again, Jatuporn Prompan is posing a political dilemma for his boss. Having been kept away from the Yingluck Cabinet, the red shirt leader is virtually knocking on the ministerial door one more time because the end of the five-year ban on 111 politicians will make a major government reshuffle unavoidable. There are several big names for Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister to consider for what could be a Cabinet revamp, but none will be as potentially explosive as Jatuporn’s.

As with most political developments in Thailand, there are two opposing theories to describe Jatuporn’s fresh appearance in news headlines. One school of thought simply states that his time has come, after having fought hard to help the Thaksin camp regain political power but missed out on the first Cabinet train because the post-election political atmosphere was too fragile.

The other school of thoughts smells a conspiracy. Not everyone, including those in the Thaksin camp, wants to see Jatuporn in the Cabinet, let alone his rising to the powerful post of deputy interior minister. Jatuporn, goes this theory, is possibly being set up for another round of character attacks. Approximately one month – the time left before the ban on the 111 politicians expires – should be enough to soften Jatuporn up and chalk him out of the list of Cabinet contenders.

Conspiracy or not, Jatuporn is a big controversy, especially if he is earmarked to become a deputy interior minister. Having led vociferous red shirt protests in 2010, in which laws were broken, public order was disrupted and the Army arguably provoked into action, it would be quite ironic for Jatuporn to take over a ministerial position charged with maintaining law and order.

Besides that irony, which could spark strong public resistance to his ministerial nomination, the road seems relatively clear for Jatuporn. His trouble in the Constitution Court stemming from the Election Commission’s attempt to disqualify him as an MP is unlikely to have legal bearing on a Cabinet appointment. That is thanks to the fact that the Thai Constitution does not require a Cabinet minister to concurrently be an MP. And when it comes to criminal charges related to the 2010 political violence, the court process is far from finalised, which means he can serve in the Cabinet in the meantime.

Politically speaking, things will not be rosy for Yingluck if she has to appoint Jatuporn to the Cabinet. Another red shirt leader, Natthawut Saikua, is already serving as deputy agriculture minister and because of that the “controversy quota” may have been stretched to its limit. Adding another red shirt leader to the government would lead to the same uproar of mockery that forced the Thaksin camp to hold back on Jatuporn’s Cabinet nomination previously.

Thaksin and Yingluck can decide that the government’s position has become more stable now. The yellow shirts have been unable to revitalise themselves, the armed forces have steered clear of politics and the opposition Democrats’ voices have been overwhelmed in Parliament by the ruling party’s election mandate. Jatuporn’s appointment, therefore, may be subjected to just a few days of outcry or condemnation that should fade away quickly.

However, the dilemma is not about Jatuporn’s Cabinet appointment causing street protests. It’s the quietness likely to greet his ministerial position that Thaksin and Yingluck should be worried about. Appointing Jatuporn to the Cabinet will send a message – or be perceived as a message – that all the talks and gestures about reconciliation only means so much as having this man join Natthawut in the government.

Prime Minister Yingluck met Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, who was always a target of harsh red shirt attacks and repeatedly accused of leading a conspiracy against Thaksin, to pay him Songkran homage recently. Despite the meeting being symbolic rather than a substantial breakthrough in Thailand’s political impasse, few people would have imagined that she would follow up that meeting with Jatuporn’s appointment. The Prem-Yingluck meeting was overwhelmingly welcomed in opinion polls as a silver lining for peace. Now, the question for Yingluck to ponder is, will Jatuporn’s appointment to the Cabinet help her proclaimed reconciliation agenda or reset everything back to Square One.