The sanctions game still has a role to play

Like it or not, Myanmar has to continue to reform at speed if it wants all sanctions to be lifted. It is a tall order. President Thein Sein has done some good work to get the once isolated country this far. Just remember where the country was early last year. 

The latest US suspension of trade sanctions is a good example that Washington has also responded to the fast changing landscape inside Myanmar. However, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was right in saying that the lifting of all sanctions is still some time away. The reasons are quite simple because there are still problems of concern, such as the ongoing fighting with the ethnic minorities, especially the Kachin, and human rights issues. 

Although the majority of political prisoners have been released, some are still in jail. The Western countries are pressuring the government to release them all without further delay. But they are also concerned about the ongoing reforms, which they do not want to jeopardise. So, the approach is to keep the pressure on to keep the ball rolling inside the country. Everyone is continuing to encourage the government to do more on all issues, but deep down there is still the fear that the reforms could be reversible, thus the continued use of sanctions as a tool.

Indeed, the current suspension of certain sanctions serves the US’ interest directly. American businesses are eager to invest in Myanmar, particularly in the oil and gas sector as well as other abundant natural resources. The US is a latecomer, but a green light by the US authorities for American businesses to invest in the country will encourage them to move quickly from now on.

Myanmar has done an amazing job in the past eight months in transforming itself. Media reports around the world have changed their tone from negative to positive spin. Soon the country will no longer censor news because there will be a new press law. A self-regulatory mechanism in the form of a press council will be established and will become the key organisation for handling media complaints and ethics. The government, it seems, is beginning to understand that handling the media well is among the prerequisites for lasting reform and will generate a good impression for the country.

Amid these reforms, the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, will begin to travel abroad for the first time in years. She will visit quite a few countries in the West. Her presence and diplomatic efforts will enhance Myanmar’s status further. Together, President Thein Sein and Suu Kyi are working together to promote Myanmar as never before. By the end of these first foreign trips, further easing of sanctions can be expected to follow as a reward. 

With global attention focused on Myanmar coupled with high expectations, the Nay Pyi Daw administration and its military backers must do their calculations meticulously. For the time being, it seems that the reforms have not yet affected their wide sphere of influence and control. But in a transitional society there will emerge issues dealing with old and new power groups. 

While keeping confidence in the reform process, the outside world still needs to watch carefully how these things play out inside Myanmar.