Bitter political divide remains deeply entrenched

A potentially nasty crisis has been averted. But what’s next? Nothing has changed in the big picture. The so-called “reconciliation bills” have not evaporated into thin air, the yellow shirts are still sworn to fight against them till their last breath, the red shirts are regrouping, the charter amendment will have to continue despite some setbacks, and Thaksin Shinawatra still wants to come home. All the ingredients of a politically volcanic eruption remain there.

Parliament was in turmoil, and the scuffle between yellow shirt protesters and police was ominous. However, last week’s tension was just a modest prelude to what will happen after the “reconciliation bills” are deliberated or passed, the red and yellow shirts have a real face-off, the charter amendment process reaches its climax and Thaksin moves within one step of being “home”. The House of Representatives finally postponed deliberating the bills, and the Constitution Court issued an injunction on charter amendment. The best we can do is let out a cautious sigh of relief, but no-one is unfastening his seat-belt.

The finger-pointing has been in full swing as expected. The yellow shirts have been accused of trying to rock the reconciliation boat, the Democrats of setting the stage for Thailand’s return to “undemocratic” ways, the government of trying to ram through what is in effect a ticket for Thaksin to return home a free man, and the military of waiting eagerly in the wing to cap a “conspiracy”. Everyone seems to think they’re doing the right thing, while everybody else is putting the country on the brink. This attitude is the only thing that all sides in Thailand’s political crisis have in common, and it cannot be changed easily.

Thailand put on show its ugly side of politics right before high-profile international guests. 

The international airport was occupied by protesters in 2008, and later an international conference in Pattaya was evacuated, to be followed by months-long encampment in a busy business district. That nobody cares about the country embarrassing itself is 

confirmation that we have grown some thick skins, or we are subconsciously resigned to the great possibility of worse things to come.

We may have reached that point when debating who to blame is useless. Last week’s ugly scenes at Parliament and problems on the streets only tell us that political peace is still a very lofty goal. “Reconciliation” is now synonymous with “strife”. “Reconciliation” is just a term every government loves to use, and be scoffed at for by those not in the corridors of state power. People say the road to reconciliation is never easy, but as things stand, we don’t even know reconciliation is the real destination, to begin with.

If the government’s rivals should be blamed for cynicism, the government itself has not been straightforward about “reconciliation”. The controversial bills were rushed to the top of the agenda near the end of an extended parliamentary session without good reason. Most importantly, the government’s action mocked its previous promise that legislative moves that would lead to a general amnesty would wait for a new charter, which will not come about until some time next year. Are the government’s enemies rocking the reconciliation boat? Or should the boat not have been there in the first place?

The worst part is, the answers to the questions, whether they are correct or wrong, will hardly matter. The political forces dictating the course of Thailand are anything but pure and yet they consider themselves to be white and “the other side” to be the “dark” one. It’s unpredictable which force will prevail, and for how long. It’s almost certain, though, that the winner will be the one talking “reconciliation” whereas the other will have nothing to show but contempt.