Sparks likely to fly as parliament begins new round

The new general session of Parliament, which opened yesterday, will determine the future direction of Thai politics as well as the strength of the Yingluck government. The new session will cover ongoing critical issues such as charter amendment proposals and reconciliation bills. Don’t rule out the possibility of a no-confidence debate, which might also come up.

The timing of the newly convened parliamentary session coincides with the first anniversary of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government. The choice of fresh-faced Yingluck as premier has proved to be a winning political gambit by the Pheu Thai Party – so far. But the honeymoon period could end if the government fails to appease all the rival political camps as well as the party’s supporters. 

Growing voices of discontent are being heard from farmers, who feel that they have not received the full benefits of the government’s subsidy policies. Their protests should be well heeded by Pheu Thai, for many of these farmers are party supporters who put the government in office. The growing internal friction within the red-shirt movement could also increase the political temperature during the new House session.

The Democrat Party has announced it is preparing to attack the government on several issues during this parliamentary session. During the previous one, the opposition party couldn’t hold a censure debate because the session was reserved for legislation deliberations and did not allow room for a no-confidence debate. Nevertheless, the Democrats continued to point out irregularities and alleged corruption, as well as the general failure of the administration.

Consequently, the upcoming censure debate could shake the government’s stability. Although MPs from the coalition parties are likely to support new Cabinet members who might be subject to a no-confidence vote, the subjects that opposition MPs choose to debate could affect popular support for the government.

In addition, the new session will provide a clearer picture as to how the coalition will move forward on charter amendments and the deliberation of reconciliation bills. The opposition party does not want to see the coalition push the two issues onto Parliament for deliberation. But the coalition parties are likely to force the reconciliation bills into the House in the next week or so. If that’s the case, then another political showdown is expected, both inside and outside the House.

The opposition could find it hard to persuade the minor coalition parties to steer away from the Pheu Thai line. But the Democrats might find an opportunity to score points by attacking the government’s failure to fix the current economic problems. The quality of the evidence that the opposition can show to the public will affect people’s opinions, especially in cases where Cabinet ministers cannot give clear and satisfactory explanations in response to criticism and allegations.

Yingluck herself could become a target, and she will find it harder to dodge questions or motions raised in the House. She might have been able to get away with this during the previous House session, but now the situation is different. Yingluck can no longer give the excuse that she’s a political novice. She still has to prove her leadership ability in government, even though she’s already spent a year in office. Parliamentary performance and public feedback will also determine the fate of Cabinet members during the expected Cabinet reshuffle.

The new House session will provide a forum for politicians to solve their differences via argument and reason. If politicians prove their worth, then the public will have more faith in Parliament, which should help lessen the turbulence outside the House.

But if politicians continue to adopt polarising tactics, as they’ve done so far, people will trust them even less, and will likely try to vent their anger on the street. The sanctity of the House system doesn’t depend solely on the majority of the vote that the coalition parties have, but their ability to find solutions for the country in a civil and constructive manner.