Curious noises north of the border

In his first public speech in April, Kim pledged not to force his people to tighten their belts. His speech drew renewed attention after Pyongyang recently took measures to improve its economic management. They include giving more incentives to increase production at collective farms, and transferring economic programmes run by the party and the military to the Cabinet.

What further interests North Korea watchers here is Kim’s open style of communicating with his people. In a striking contrast to the secrecy-shrouded leadership of his late father and predecessor Kim Jong-il, the young ruler has been seen with his wife at a series of events, including a concert featuring Disney characters, a kindergarten visit and a tour of an amusement park. These public displays of affection appear designed to portray him as a friendly and down-to-earth leader.

Around these amicable appearances came the dismissal of the hard-line army chief of staff, sparking speculation among North Korea experts here that Kim was trying to tighten his reins on the military in a possible attempt to remove obstacles to his reform initiatives.

It has yet to be seen whether recent changes in the North signal fundamental reforms or are motivated to merely assuage the growing discontent among its people.

In 1997 and 2002, North Korea introduced schemes similar to recent measures, aimed at expanding production at collective farms. But the past bids for change were short-lived, as then leader Kim Jong-il rolled them back out of fear that they might weaken his control over the impoverished regime.

The immediate test of the junior Kim’s determination to push for changes will be whether he will go beyond the line his father was hesitant to cross in internal economic management.

The true evidence of his determination for reform, however, will be confirmed when Pyongyang moves to improve ties with South Korea and the rest of the world by giving up its nuclear weapons programmes and other acts of hostility.

As the North is more isolated now than the last time it pushed for economic changes, it will be essential to improving the lives of its people to forge an external environment favourable for drawing foreign investment and aid other than assistance from China.

But Pyongyang has yet to depart from its confrontational stance with Seoul.

The North recently resumed sending propaganda leaflets via balloon across the border for the first time in 12 years. Its state-run TV last week broadcast footage of North Korean soldiers shooting at paper targets marked with the name of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

Pyongyang earlier said it had no choice but to completely review the nuclear issue – a veiled threat to conduct a third atomic bomb test – after implicating South Korea and the US in an alleged plot to destroy statues of its founding leader Kim Il-sung.

South Korean officials must closely monitor North Korea’s moves and make preparations for helping accelerate its reform efforts if it is confirmed that Kim and his aides are sincere about changes.

Though wading ever-deeper into lame duck territory, the Lee administration should not neglect to keep watch over the North and prepare for possible inter-Korean cooperation projects during its final months in office.

Major presidential candidates from both the ruling and opposition parties are also required to fine-tune their approaches toward the North. They should go beyond simply sticking to reciprocal principles as Lee has done, or unconditionally pursuing conciliatory policies toward Pyongyang as Lee’s more liberal predecessors did.