Alpine bomb defused but new headache for PM

Yongyuth Wichaidit’s decision to leave the Yingluck Cabinet to prevent the never-say-die Alpine scandal from erupting anew has given the prime minister another kind of headache. Not only was he deputy prime minister, the least complicated position to refill, but he was also interior minister, one of the most controversial and potentially explosive Cabinet slots to put someone in.

A lot of names have been mentioned. Even Yingluck Shinawatra herself has been mooted as a candidate. This is not the first time Yingluck has been subjected to speculation that she could double as head of a key ministry. Recently, she had been touted as new defence minister, no matter how politically sensitive that might sound.

The Interior Ministry, despite its reduced power where the country’s elections are concerned, remains a top state agency that every ruling party must grab with both hands. Every politician wants to control one of Thailand’s biggest bureaucratic apparatuses that supervises provincial governors. There remains a belief, which was weakened somewhat by the 2006 coup, that if you control Parliament, the Interior Ministry, the Defence Ministry, the Finance Ministry and one of the key economic ministries, you can be politically invincible.

This is why we have seen either strange or ugly faces taking turns to run the Interior Ministry. It has become almost a tradition that the interior minister must be someone who is not only important to the ruling party, but also ready to do dirty jobs. This is one of the ministries that requires more boldness than expertise. On one hand, it seems to be an easy position to fill as anybody who is bold enough can be Thailand’s interior minister. On the other hand, to find someone not bold to the point of craziness is not that simple.

Yongyuth was not an out-and-out bold type but, as the nominal leader of the ruling party and as a long-serving Interior Ministry bureaucrat, he was the best choice under the circumstances. Until the Alpine scandal came simmering back, that is. After the National Counter Corruption Commission ruled against him, setting the stage for possible prosecution, he became a big political liability. The opposition’s fire was ricocheting off him toward Thaksin Shinawatra, but the immediate concern was over the stability of the Yingluck government and the Pheu Thai Party. There were legitimate fears he could drag both down.

With the Yongyuth situation calming down, Yingluck now faces the new challenge of how to replace him without major repercussions. The first questions to ponder are whether she should appoint a replacement in a low-key Cabinet reshuffle and how. Despite the “revolving-door” trend set by her big brother Thaksin, Yingluck reportedly hates a Cabinet revamp. Naming Yongyuth’s replacement would open the door for a situation that she does not like.

The next question is who. Chalerm Yoobamrung is lurking, and he has the boldness required. But is it a good idea to switch from reticent Yongyuth to a confrontational man like him all of a sudden? Outgoing police chief Priewpan Damapong would prompt a new outcry of nepotism. To pick someone from the “111 club” like Chaturon Chaisaeng may court factional trouble in the ruling party. Jatuporn Promphan, meanwhile, is probably the worst choice of them all.

Bokhin Polakula, also a “111 club” member, is also a strong candidate, so is Phumtham Wechayachai. Another name in the news is Apiwan Wiriyachai, a key red shirt figure who lost out to Somsak Kiatsuranont in the race for House speaker position. 

To hope that Yingluck would depoliticise the top job at the Interior Ministry is wishful thinking. This leaves her the question of how she can minimise politicisation of the vacant position. Which is probably why we are hearing speculation about the prime minister doubling as interior minister, at least temporarily.

In fact, such a move would buy her some time, although the irony of it is that putting her in the middle of it would just underline how politically flammable the position left vacant by Yongyuth is.