Too hot?

Now comes a string of high-profile events and rising expectations. 

At the end of 2013, Myanmar will host the Southeast Asian Games. The government is also preparing to take over the chairmanship of Asean for 2014. The year after, the country must hold elections – a key in the transition to democracy. 

Logistics and the capacity to manage large-scale, high-level events will be tested. There are already complaints about the availability and high cost of hotel rooms. Connections between Yangon and the capital Na Pyi Taw remain scant and expensive by air, or require four hours overland. 

The WEF East Asia Summit is therefore something of a practice run. The issues, moreover, go beyond administration, protocol and formal niceties. Take the effort to chair Asean. The chair plays an important role in shaping responses and consensus. If not, the group can flounder – as it did last year when Cambodia failed to foster consensus on the South China Sea issues for a ministerial statement.

China’s maritime disputes with neighbours remain, and indeed have been heightened in the past year – especially with Japan and the Philippines, both US allies. Myanmar is not a claimant, but is no stranger to Chinese influence and investment. Indeed, its political opening can be seen as an effort to woo the West and Japan to balance the different interests. What stance Myanmar takes with China remains to be seen.

There is also Asean’s ambition to set up an economic community in 2015. Especially in the goals for economic integration, Myanmar may not seem a natural champion. The geographical potential is for the country to connect Asean to India and China. But decades of isolation have left considerable development gaps. 

Myanmar must prepare diligently. Many more people in Myanmar need to know more about Asean – not only officials in government but also businesses, the political opposition and the newly liberalised media. Further, the government would do well to pair its reforms to the Asean economic agenda – especially for connectivity in infrastructure and policies. 

Considerable challenges lie ahead. One key requirement is for the overhaul of the political and governance systems to improve speed, transparency and predictability. This will not be as dramatic as witnessing Aung San Suu Kyi go from house arrest to elected MP. Yet progress in this area is critical for the country’s ability to attract the right investments. 

The government must also find ways to better manage ethnic problems in Rakhine State and stem the increasing incidents of Buddhist-Muslim violence. Otherwise, criticisms over human rights issues – muted thus far – will resurface. 

Perceptions of Myanmar are shifting. The applause for early political reform has brought investors to window-shop the country’s potential. Yet now, more are asking whether Myanmar is warming up for economic takeoff, or has got too hot from all the attention.

There is still time before a definitive answer is demanded. But globalisation and large corporations – for which the WEF remains a poster boy – are not infinitely patient. The initial flourish of opening must be followed up with practical and visible progress. Otherwise the attention brought by Myanmar’s hosting of upcoming events will be drawn to gaps and disappointments. Opening up, after all, allows visitors not only to enter but also to leave.

 

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and associate professor at the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore.