The technologies and products that will transform our lives

In this article, I would like to highlight some new technologies/products that I believe will transform our lives in the years ahead. We will look at new innovations that will shape our future and in the process may result in what the early 20th century economist Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction”. Profits will be shifted to creative producers, industry structure will be rearranged, and incumbent businesses will be replaced with new and more innovative enterprises. In the future, I think we will see five new technological forces that will change the world: 

First, mobile Internet. This world-changing technology will be widely available to everyone. Today, 4.3 billion people remain to be connected to the Internet’ potentially they can be, through mobile Internet. Within just a few years, Internet-enabled portable devices have gone from a luxury for a few to a way of life for more than 1 billion people who now own smartphones and tablets. Needless to say, mobile Internet has applications across business and public sectors, enabling more efficient delivery of many services, and creating opportunities to increase workforce productivity. 

Second, advanced robotics. For the past several decades, industrial robots have taken on physically difficult, dangerous or dirty jobs. These robots have been expensive, bulky and inflexible. Now, more advanced robots are gaining enhanced senses, dexterity and intelligence, thanks to accelerating advancements in machine vision, artificial intelligence and machine-to-machine communication. These advances could make it practical to substitute robots for human labour in more manufacturing tasks, as well as in a growing number of service jobs such as cleaning and maintenance.

Third, 3D printing. Until now, 3D printing has largely been used by product designers and hobbyists and for a few selected manufacturing applications. However, the performance of additive manufacturing machinery is improving, the range of materials is expanding, and prices (of both printers and materials) are declining rapidly – bringing 3D printing to a point where it could see rapid adoption by consumers and even for more manufacturing uses. With 3D printing, an idea can go directly from a 3D design file to a finished part or product, potentially skipping many traditional manufacturing steps. Importantly, 3D printing enables on-demand production, which has interesting implications for supply chains and for stocking spare parts – a major cost for manufacturers. Also, 3D printing can reduce the amount of material wasted in manufacturing, and create objects that are difficult or impossible to produce with traditional techniques. Scientists have now even “bioprinted” organs using a printing technique to layer human artificial limbs.  Jet engines are now being made with 3D printing technology.

Fourth, advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery. New exploration and recovery techniques now make extraction of unconventional oil and gas economical. The ability to extract so-called unconventional oil and gas reserves from shale rock formations is a technology revolution that has been gathering force for nearly four decades. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing makes it possible to reach oil and gas deposits that were known to exist in the US and other places but were not economically accessible by conventional drilling methods. The potential impact of this technology has received enormous attention. With continued improvements, this technology could significantly increase the availability of fossil fuels for decades and produce an immediate boon for energy-intensive industries such as petrochemicals manufacturing. Eventually, improving technology for oil and gas exploration and recovery could even unlock new types of reserves, including coalbed methane, tight sandstones and methane hydrates, potentially ushering in another energy “revolution”.

Fifth, renewable energy. The new energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro-electric and ocean wave now hold the promise of an endless source of power without stripping resources, contributing to climate change or worrying about competition for fossil fuels. Solar cell technology is progressing particularly rapidly. In the past two decades, the cost of power produced by solar cells has dropped from nearly US$8 per watt of capacity to one tenth of that amount. Meanwhile, wind power constitutes a rapidly growing proportion of renewable electricity generation. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are increasingly being adopted at scale in advanced economies like the US and Europe. Even more importantly, China, India and other emerging economies have aggressive plans for solar and wind adoption that could enable further rapid economic growth while mitigating growing concerns about pollution.

These five new technologies will have a significant impact on our lives. They are rapidly advancing and showing great capabilities in terms of price/performances relative to substitute and alternative approaches. In the process, significant economic value could be affected – shifting profits towards new business models, new sources of GDP growth, capital and labour that may be rendered obsolete in the future. Inevitably, the future era will go through another “creative destruction” process.  Let’s hope Thailand is ready for the change!

 

Chodechai Suwanaporn is executive vice president, energy economics and policy, PTT Public Company Limited. [email protected]; [email protected].