New line-up does not insipre any more confidence

The public’s response was neither negative nor when the new Cabinet line-up was announced. The government certainly doesn’t want any fresh controversy – the priority now is to restore credibility in the midst of a decline in popularity.

The key controversies include the rice price-pledging scheme and water-management projects, so Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has brought in new faces and removed or transferred old ones. The move is not aimed at strengthening the government, but it is rather a rearguard action to offset the criticism.

There is a sense of urgency about the reshuffle, suggesting it’s a grab at convincing the electorate that all will soon be right with the rice scheme, the flood threat and corruption. The bad news is that the latest Suan Dusit opinion poll had 15 per cent of respondents expecting the popularity of the government to decline further because they believe it will fail to solve the problems. Nearly 60 per cent said the Cabinet reshuffle wouldn’t help much, compared to 27 per cent who have faith in the new Cabinet members to make a difference.

Whether or not the overhaul will help the government out of its worst crisis so far – two years into its term – remains to be seen. Analysts see the change in economic portfolios as little help. Former PM’s Office Minister Nivatthamrong Boonsongpaisal takes over at the Commerce Ministry amid scant expectations. Moving there with him, new deputy minister Yanyong Phuangrach drew mixed reaction. On one hand he was a former director-general at the ministry, but on the other his return signals that the task awaiting them is immense. That in turn suggests that the job needs someone who can connect politicians and bureaucrats well. As well, mystery lingers over why Boonsong Teriyapirom was removed as minister, since he never really “failed” to follow government policy. 

If the rice scheme backfires, the fault is not entirely Boonsong’s. As for the matter of not meeting export targets, the responsibility should fall on other key Cabinet members and ruling-party strategists.

Some analysts believe that Yingluck doubling as defence minister is aimed at cementing her relationship with the military, that her task is to earn the trust of the Army and head off possible conflicts there. But does this arrangement serve the public interest? As soon as she was named Thailand’s first female defence minister, critics decided the government wanted a bigger say in the annual Army reshuffle. Then there is the likely connection with the government’s unofficial reconciliation policy, legislation for which will not enjoy a smoother ride to acceptance.

Yingluck could be successful as defence minister provided her deputy, General Yuthasak Sasiprapha, handles most of the work. Regardless, though, it is not going to improve the government’s popularity because this is not an issue that concerns the public right now.

There is no shortcut for the government – even with the reshuffle and a possible boost in credibility – as long as serious issues go unresolved. It has a mountain to climb just to tackle the economic problems. In purely political terms, “demoting” outspoken veteran Chalerm Yoobamrung might not have been a good idea. Losing the post of deputy PM in charge of the deep South and the National Police to become Labour minister has really upset him. Never that popular with the wider public, Chalerm nonetheless seems to be the only minister ready to answer critics about the reconciliation bill, the only one unafraid to discuss “dirty” topics. The response to the murder of Akeyuth Anchanbutr was a fine example of his willingness to say just about anything to shield the government. In a less-important post, he is unlikely to continue such “thankless” efforts.

Thaksin Shinawatra’s allies who have returned to the Cabinet will have to prove their worth. Meanwhile their re-emergence does the government little credit. On the contrary, analysts at home and abroad say the reshuffle has Thaksin’s signature all over it, another nail in Yingluck’s credibility. 

There is no easy way for the government to solve the country’s problems, but the pressure will only build if it doesn’t put public interest ahead of its own. After two years in power and a fifth Cabinet, the government’s task is even more difficult. Before the voters run out of patience, it has to show that the reshuffle was aimed at solving problems, not just a facelift.