When it comes to the Middle East, the world has learnt not to count its chickens before the eggs hatch.
An attempt by US President Barack Obama to broker a deal in his first term ended horribly. And so this time around, nobody is looking at the finish line but taking things as they come.
For the time being, things look to be moving in the right direction, which is good. After three years of standstill, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have “established a basis” to resume direct negotiations.
US Secretary of State John Kerry made the announcement from the Jordanian capital Amman after several rounds of travelling back and forth between Washington DC and the region.
Kerry described the current state of things as an “initial” phase. If this takes off, it would be the first substantial step towards the reconvening of peace talks.
His plan to provide economic incentives for Palestinians and the framework for future talks has received a blessing from the Arab League, which is a good start.
“They have courageously recognized that in order for Israelis and Palestinians to live together side by side in peace and security, they must begin by sitting at the table together in direct talks,” said Kerry, in reference to the two negotiating parties.
If this “initial” phase takes shape and evolves, it would be the first time Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority have come face-to-face.
Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, Israeli Minister in charge of peace talks Tzipi Livni, and Netanyahu’s special envoy Isaac Molho could join Kerry in Washington in coming days. Given the state of things, getting them together in the same city would be an achievement in itself.
But Kerry needs to go beyond just getting them to the same table to talk. The hard part, it seems, is to get the two sides to compromise on core issues, which include ending Israeli settlement in the West Bank, refugees’ right to return and the status of Jerusalem. These were issues that derailed Washington’s previous attempt to kickstart peace talks.
Understandably, details about the kind of concessions that may be possible have not been revealed. This may be a good thing, given the uncompromising stance of hardliners on both sides.
But it has been reported that participants will use the 1967 pre-war borders as the basis for talks together with the recognition of Israeli as a Jewish state.
For the time being, it’s pretty much about building confidence and that could involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners or an agreement to put their diplomatic assault on Israel on hold.
In the final analysis, one has to be realistic about what is achievable given the current predicament of the two sides. Palestinian leader Abbas’ people are split with Hamas controlling the Gaza Strip and his Fatah faction dominating the West Bank.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, is leading a coalition that appears to be more and more uncompromising by the day. His Cabinet couldn’t care less about a Palestinian state, as domestic concerns are paramount.
Livni, a leader of Israel’s negotiating team, praised Kerry for his effort to get the two sides back together.
“Years of diplomatic stalemate are about to end,” she wrote on her Facebook page. “The determination of Secretary of State John Kerry, not to be taken for granted, led to the Palestinians and us entering the negotiating room.”