China-Asean relationship: Cooperation or conflict?
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Consultations on South China Sea must move ahead and progress to avoid conflict
Rising tensions in the South China Sea have changed Asean-China relations from cooperation to potential conflict. Yet there is now agreement to begin consultations on a Code of Conduct to manage the issue. Since his appointment, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also visibly upgraded Asean engagement.
Marking the 10th anniversary of their strategic partnership, a recent High Level Forum proceeded positively with senior officials and think-tank experts from both sides. Is there substance beneath the ceremony? Are relations turning more positive?
This won’t be the first time to patch over rough spots. The Chinese Communist Party’s post-WWII support for communist movements in the region meant that diplomatic relations were not normalised until 1991. By 1995, the Mischief reef incident triggered differences – then as now – over the South China Sea.
China responded however not with aggression but a “charm offensive”. The bold suggestion of a free trade agreement not only created Asia’s largest market, Beijing’s offer of an “early harvest” of preferences also showed empathy for the anxieties of smaller neighbours.
China emerged as Asean’s largest trade partner and closest collaborator. A longer arc across centuries shows that connections of civilisations across the sea and land have been largely positive and peaceful.
Yet history can only do so much for present problems. While the Asean-China forum hosted by Thailand was largely positive, other voices and events intruded.
The Philippines and Vietnam are pushing for full negotiations on the Code of Conduct – and not a more cautious “consultation”. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded by cautioning against “rushing”. There may be a point in managing expectations – the preceding Declaration of Conduct, after all, took the better part of a decade.
But there are more pressures today.
Manila recently bolstered its navy by accepting a Hamilton-class cutter from the US – and Washington has said it will push China to speed up negotiations. Japan – with differences with China over islands further north – unveiled a naval vessel that can carry and deploy helicopters, its largest since WWII.
For China itself, military modernisation and spending continues apace. Nationalistic netizens will complain if their leaders seem too soft.
If conflict is to be headed off, consultations on the South China Sea must move ahead and show sufficient progress. In parallel, cooperation on navigation safety and the marine environment should progress. Most importantly, actual practice by the military and other agencies in everyday exchanges must emphasise prudence.
Otherwise, the best days for neighbourly cooperation are over and everyone should prepare for rising competition and possible conflict.
This can be further complicated by Japan and the US, two other major partners that have given Asean more attention of late.
There are issues beyond the South China Sea that both can work on together. There is a need, for instance, for infrastructure and investment to connect the two. Yet even positive steps will not be easy. The China of the 1990s has grown into a giant and the asymmetry in size and power makes many in Asean nervous.
To ease the way, China must demonstrate a degree of magnanimity in assisting Asean – especially the developing countries on its borders – without expecting to dominate them. For Asean, there must be wisdom to cooperate with China, while adroitly working with other major powers.
This will be critical for two upcoming Asean-led efforts – the East Asia Summit and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The summit, to be hosted by Brunei, aims for a candid dialogue that helps build strategic trust in Asia-Pacific. But it can only succeed if all powers are equally welcome and participative.
The RCEP similarly hubs around Asean and will bring in all of Asia, including India and Australia-New Zealand. It can only boost economic integration across the region if major economies – including China – show commitment.
In the wake of the region’s crisis of 1997, Asian cooperation grew and the Asean-China relationship was a key actor. The two must again see their cooperation as essential, rather than optional. Otherwise, Asia’s regionalism will falter.
The alternative is that security will continue to depend on the American alliance, while the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) for economic and trade integration will take centre stage. This can negatively impact China and the many Asean members standing outside the TPP.
China may have its differences with Asean and vice versa. But if Asians are to come together as a region, dealing with current problems and upgrading Asean-China cooperation will be essential.
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and was invited to speak at the recent High Level Asean-China Forum held by the Thai government. The SIIA will host the Asean Asia Forum on September 12 to discuss key issues in the region that matter for business.
