The West has limited capacity to influence the generals in Cairo

This past week, with much of the world’s attention focused on the atrocities in Syria and the possibility of US airstrikes to halt the use of chemical weapons, the generals in Egypt were doing what they know best. 

The country’s top brass who just two years ago appeared to be going along with the pro-democracy forces were busy turning the clock back to an ‘old’ repressive system that could be worse than the one dictator Hosni Mubarak had built and reigned over for decades.

This past Thursday, the generals who ousted a democratically elected government led by Mohamed Morsi two months ago took advantage of the distraction caused by the Syrian crisis to impose a state of emergency in the country, that will last for two months. 

Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood allies, as well as anybody who dares to challenge the generals and their civilian cadre, can expect more head-bashing and indefinite detention.

Needless to say, this is not the kind of country that the pro-democracy forces envisioned when they ousted the Mubarak regime from power. Back then, the pro-democracy forces were made up of all sorts of people, from liberals to various religious groups affiliated with their respective faith. 

And when a mandate was given to the people, the inevitable outcome of the polling booth saw the Muslim Brotherhood come in first. Having been kept away from the country’s political space, the Brotherhood’s inexperience meant they ruled in a very stubborn manner and tried to push through a constitution that ignored other groups’ concerns.

This explains why the Christians, liberals, youths and nationalists, as well as rival Islamist groups, supported the army-led coup. But all that changed when the security forces seized the opportunity to turn back the clock by seizing power again.

But the Brotherhood’s short taste of victory was enough to fuel their anger and desire to regain what is rightfully theirs – a mandate to run the country. 

For those who think Islamists in the Middle East fit together as a cooperative whole, think again. An Islamist party that is even more conservative and dogmatic than the Brotherhood had sided with the coup plotters. So did Saudi Arabia, whose ruling family is afraid of a democratically elected Islamist government like the one led by the Brotherhood.

Within a week of the July 3 coup, the Saudi and Gulf Arabs announced a $12-billion package for the Egyptian military-led government. Besides strengthening the hand of the army dictators in Egypt, the $12 billion package dwarfs the United States’ $1.5 billion and the European Union’s $1.3 billion economic grants. Basically, the Saudi-led initiative denies the US, EU and other donors the only tool they could use to get the generals to seek an alternative political solution.

By boosting the hands of the military, the Saudi and Gulf states, not to mention Israel, will have to, sooner or later, contend with the people of Egypt if and when the military loses out. 

For the time being, thanks to these generous donors who are afraid of a democratically elected Islamist regime like the Muslim Brotherhood taking power in Cairo, repression will continue while economic recovery and freedom and liberty will have to take a back seat to the needs of the generals.