October 8 will be JUST ANOTHER DAY
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Nobody really takes it seriously, except perhaps Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. But she might have heard about it from her elder brother Thaksin. By telling Thai Rath that anti-government forces have set October 8 as the deadline to topple the Yinglu
Political observers were naturally puzzled that Thaksin had picked up and given credence this prediction by an astrologer, despite the fact that nobody else had considered it anything more than juicy gossip.
One Pheu Thai MP went so far as to say the astrologer had forecast the government’s stars would be thrown into crisis from October 7-9.
“The astrologer says that, during that period, the government will be at its weakest point. Any attempt to topple it will have to be carried out then,” said MP Vorachai Hema of Samut Prakan. He also claimed to have gathered his own “intelligence” pointing to a link between the current political problems with rallies being held by rubber planters in the South.
He also said a “plot” to use the southern protesters to undermine the government has apparently failed. Therefore the next move to subvert the government will be taken up by independent agencies.
By that he means that the National Counter-Corruption Commission, which is due to hand down its decision on the validity of the opposition’s petition against the government’s controversial rice price-pledging scheme. That decision is expected to come between October 7-8.
According to this conspiracy theory, if the NCCC finds the government guilty one way or the other, the red shirts will launch street protests, prompting the military to move in to quell unrest. He predicted that the subsequent chaos would end in a military coup.
Thaksin only had to drop the hint. It was then quite easy for his followers to add colour to complete the story.
There will always be those ready to believe that such a plot is real. And there will always be people who think it’s too far-fetched that another coup could take place.
But if one reads Thaksin’s interview with Thai Rath carefully, the former premier, who was ousted in a coup exactly seven years ago, is in fact adopting a “talk-talk-fight-fight” strategy.
With one hand he points an accusing finger at those he believes are intent upon ousting his sister’s government. With the other he offers an olive branch, insisting once again he is ready to give up politics if he can return home safely and with his name cleared.
Thaksin repeated his stand about not taking revenge. “I am ready to forgive everybody,” he declared. But, as usual, he didn’t admit any wrongdoing, raising doubts as to how he can come home under his own terms without sparking more turmoil in the country.
The ruling Pheu Thai Party has targeted independent agencies such as the NCCC and Constitutional Court, which, in its view, will have to be removed from the amended charter – or, if they remain, be rendered powerless. Under the scenario painted by government MPs, the rewritten charter will have to get rid of “independent agencies” that could interfere with the power of the executive branch.
In effect, this would mean that the checks and balances crucial to a vibrant democracy would be removed once and for all. That has caused a wave of protests from those who see this as yet another ominous sign in the relentless attempt to allow the ruling party to gain full control of the country’s three pillars of political influence.
But, despite all the wild speculation, part of which might have been a pre-emptive move, October 8 will be just another day on the calendar. It has long been known that our governments usually crumble from within. External factors are mostly a nuisance, never a real threat.
